The thing is, he is almost certain to improve a little and that could matter very much in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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But a 2-4 point improvement with a group that has recently voted as a 90% block is a decent surge. If he got 8% of the black vote in '16, and he gets the high-end 4%, he breaks double-digits. The GOP has to start somewhere.
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Or maybe he just needs minority voters to stay home...
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2-4% is enough, but many polls have show at least double that number. With record low unemployment, people have seen improvement in their own lives across demographics. That's going to affect how they vote.
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A 4 point swing would be great news for Trump & could decide the election. But 15% of the vote isn't going to happen unless there's just an enormous national swing across demographic groups from where we are today.
End of conversation
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It's more a question if black voters will turn out for Democrats than if they would ever swing towards Trump.
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