The House is uphill for a variety of reasons, but to the extent you feel good about his reelect it's easy to imagine him winning 218 CDs. Different map, but he carried 230 last time, and you're unlikely to end up with too many splits.
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If he's re-elected, Rs almost certainly gain House seats. But also will be an interesting question, win or lose, whether we see less ticket-splitting than in 2016, when Trump ran well ahead & well behind R candidates for SEN/GOV/House in various places.
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But we are also in uncharted waters with a president being impeached in his first term. Trump could be the first president to be impeached and win re-election and this flipping the house back as well.
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