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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Verified account
@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 31 Oct 2019

      Dan McLaughlin Retweeted

      I know people who loathed him but pulled the lever in Nov. 2016 & aren't sure they can do it again. That said, Trump probably needs to *add* voters to get re-elected, given his margins & D turnout in MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, NC, & to some extent GA, OH, IA, & TX in 2016. https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1189903858115461125 …

      Dan McLaughlin added,

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      38 replies 9 retweets 42 likes
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      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 31 Oct 2019

      In the first six of those states, Trump got less than 50% of the vote; in WI he won with fewer actual votes than Mitt Romney got in 2012. He can't just bank on turning out his 2016 voters if he's going to win those states again.

      7:12 AM - 31 Oct 2019
      • 7 Retweets
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      • DFTye 1RAOKADAY 🍻 🇹🇼🌐🇭🇰 🍻 C. Lilly CraigAlphusAndrewSmith MJ TrumpIsNoReagan Kirk Merritt 趙必能⚾️🐘🌳🗽🌺🇺🇲🇭🇰🇹🇼Free🇨🇺🇮🇷 🇲🇲🇦🇫 Wyatt Taylor
      8 replies 7 retweets 31 likes
        1. Michael from Montana‏ @WellspringGP 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          I'd rate him 40-50% to lose all of those states except Ohio.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. seanfuci 🎃us‏ @Seanfucious 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Thank you for this. Trump ran behind republicans nationwide, and was largely victorious in the blue wall because of low turnout among minority voters in those states. One number to look at is the number of presidential ballots left blank in Detroit...that was the difference!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. JJ Chise‏ @JJChise 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Your analysis is flawed because any poll taken now does not identify an opponent. Once the opponent is real and examined as possible president Trump wins in a landslide.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Leo Kessler‏ @BlockadeLeo 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Yep. When presidents get re-elected, they almost always do so by a larger percentage than their initial victory (Obama 2012 being a notable exception).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. BOMILCAR!‏ @BO00000001 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          In 2016 the Libertarian Party outperformed their 2012 performance by 3 million votes. Most of those are disaffected Republicans who, assuming the economy stays strong, will return to the Republican Party & Vote Trump in 2020. This puts 6 additional states in play for Trump.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. SlangingNuts‏ @lupeinatl 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @BO00000001 @baseballcrank

          Assuming those numbers are true, that is nonetheless a HUGE assumption that they’ll “return” and vote for Trump. Huge!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. D Mac-‏ @dougm7914 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Dan is doing it again

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Brian Holan‏ @brian_holan 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          Sure. In the circles you run in this might be true. However, Trump isn't pandering to the small niche DC swamp nevertrump group.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. David Mueller‏ @davidwmueller 31 Oct 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          What the heck? The Democrats are even more insane than ever, and I don't see how anyone can say that Trump is not better than they expected. I didn't vote for Trump the first time, but I will have no problem voting for him this time, given the alternative.

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