I know people who loathed him but pulled the lever in Nov. 2016 & aren't sure they can do it again. That said, Trump probably needs to *add* voters to get re-elected, given his margins & D turnout in MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, NC, & to some extent GA, OH, IA, & TX in 2016. https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1189903858115461125 …
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I'd rate him 40-50% to lose all of those states except Ohio.
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Thank you for this. Trump ran behind republicans nationwide, and was largely victorious in the blue wall because of low turnout among minority voters in those states. One number to look at is the number of presidential ballots left blank in Detroit...that was the difference!
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Your analysis is flawed because any poll taken now does not identify an opponent. Once the opponent is real and examined as possible president Trump wins in a landslide.
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Yep. When presidents get re-elected, they almost always do so by a larger percentage than their initial victory (Obama 2012 being a notable exception).
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In 2016 the Libertarian Party outperformed their 2012 performance by 3 million votes. Most of those are disaffected Republicans who, assuming the economy stays strong, will return to the Republican Party & Vote Trump in 2020. This puts 6 additional states in play for Trump.
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Assuming those numbers are true, that is nonetheless a HUGE assumption that they’ll “return” and vote for Trump. Huge!
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Dan is doing it again
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Sure. In the circles you run in this might be true. However, Trump isn't pandering to the small niche DC swamp nevertrump group.
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What the heck? The Democrats are even more insane than ever, and I don't see how anyone can say that Trump is not better than they expected. I didn't vote for Trump the first time, but I will have no problem voting for him this time, given the alternative.
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