12. Clinton in 1996 still had a big working-class advantage, both white working class & non-white. He wins Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennesee, West Virginia.
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13. So what happens? 1998 is dominated by the Lewinsky story, which grows out of pre-existing lawsuits & investigations but gets launched to orbit by new media (eg Drudge). Clinton lies to the voters, lies under oath, lies to everyone, gets caught.
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14. But Starr has to work in the dark: the Independent Counsel can't command the media like Clinton. Sure, he can leak stuff, but it's not a close competition. And Starr has no background as a prosecutor.
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15. Starr Report drops like a bomb in September 1998. None of this is actually just private conduct: sexual harassment of an Arkansas subordinate, affair in the Oval Office with an intern, lying in civil lawsuits & grand jury, obstructing justice.
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16. BUT it still feels to a lot of people like a story about sex; current mores on sexual harassment were not what they are now, in spite of the Thomas-Hill hearings (where polls during/after hearings showed large public majorities believed Thomas).
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17. Impeachment almost totally derails the 1996 dynamic of bipartisanship. 1998-99 legislative calendars much more modest after a 1997 compromise to cut the capital gains tax. Economy is in overdrive.
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18. Clinton throws some missiles at Saddam & bin Laden on days he needs a distraction (day of his grand jury testimony, day of impeachment vote), but country's at peace. Voters think it's nuts to tear the government in half over all this.
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19. BUT they also think Clinton is by this point an incurably reckless sex maniac who would lie to them about anything. They're happy with the job he's doing but a whole lot of people are sick of explaining blow jobs to their kids.
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20. 1998 midterms, with impeachment in the air, are a big disappointment to GOP by midterm standards, but also a stalemate: GOP loses just 4 House seats, no change in Senate majority. On top of this, scandal forces out both Newt & his replacement, Bob Livingston.
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Replying to @baseballcrank
Thank God we got a guy with a spotless personal life like Denny Hastert in their place.
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He literally got the job because nobody could picture Denny Hastert in a sex scandal.
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Replying to @baseballcrank @EsotericCD
Literally? You think the GOP needs to make that its #1 leadership criterion?
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