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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      13. So what happens? 1998 is dominated by the Lewinsky story, which grows out of pre-existing lawsuits & investigations but gets launched to orbit by new media (eg Drudge). Clinton lies to the voters, lies under oath, lies to everyone, gets caught.

      1 reply 3 retweets 18 likes
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    2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      14. But Starr has to work in the dark: the Independent Counsel can't command the media like Clinton. Sure, he can leak stuff, but it's not a close competition. And Starr has no background as a prosecutor.

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
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    3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      15. Starr Report drops like a bomb in September 1998. None of this is actually just private conduct: sexual harassment of an Arkansas subordinate, affair in the Oval Office with an intern, lying in civil lawsuits & grand jury, obstructing justice.

      1 reply 4 retweets 16 likes
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    4. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      16. BUT it still feels to a lot of people like a story about sex; current mores on sexual harassment were not what they are now, in spite of the Thomas-Hill hearings (where polls during/after hearings showed large public majorities believed Thomas).

      2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
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    5. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      17. Impeachment almost totally derails the 1996 dynamic of bipartisanship. 1998-99 legislative calendars much more modest after a 1997 compromise to cut the capital gains tax. Economy is in overdrive.

      1 reply 2 retweets 12 likes
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    6. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      18. Clinton throws some missiles at Saddam & bin Laden on days he needs a distraction (day of his grand jury testimony, day of impeachment vote), but country's at peace. Voters think it's nuts to tear the government in half over all this.

      2 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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    7. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      19. BUT they also think Clinton is by this point an incurably reckless sex maniac who would lie to them about anything. They're happy with the job he's doing but a whole lot of people are sick of explaining blow jobs to their kids.

      3 replies 5 retweets 23 likes
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    8. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      20. 1998 midterms, with impeachment in the air, are a big disappointment to GOP by midterm standards, but also a stalemate: GOP loses just 4 House seats, no change in Senate majority. On top of this, scandal forces out both Newt & his replacement, Bob Livingston.

      5 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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    9. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      21. Livingston lasts all of 48 hours; Republicans throw him under the bus just as they are voting for impeachment. Democrats as a whole rally in tribal fashion around Clinton.

      2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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    10. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      22. While the Senate votes 55-45 to acquit Clinton on the perjury charge, there's 50 votes to remove him from office for obstruction. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/articles122098.htm#full3 …pic.twitter.com/A6H3Zchpth

      1 reply 3 retweets 10 likes
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      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

      23. Clinton partisans do jigs over him getting off scot-free. Democrats nominate his VP, who had led the pep rally on the WH lawn. GOP nominates GW Bush, who evokes a cleaner, grownup White House but also (unlike McCain, his primary foe) conspicuously stayed out of impeachment.

      9:05 AM - 27 Sep 2019
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      • Brian Doherty Emilio Bazzarelli nic Roy Mynaras Katiedid shedid shedidnt DemonNinjaLlama Lee Howk Bayou_Con
      2 replies 1 retweet 16 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          24. In 2000, following the traditional post-incumbent dynamic but helped along by the drag of the scandal itself, Bush beats Gore, creating the red-blue map we know today by a big swing in socially conservative states.

          1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
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        3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          25. Scandal puts Gore in a lose-lose: voters are tired of the stink, but it makes him gunshy about embracing Clinton, & he picks a running mate who had been one of Clinton's harshest critics. (Bush picks Cheney, who'd also stayed out of impeachment fights).

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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        4. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          26. Win for GOP, right? But not so fast. House majority erodes by another 2 seats in 2000, Dems pick up 4 Senate seats so that a single defection could - and does - strip Republicans of the majority. Only in 2002, post-9/11, does the Congressional GOP turn the page.

          2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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        5. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          27. If you weren't there, it's easy to forget how much of Bush's 2000 campaign - "compassionate conservatism," stresses on his bipartisan record in Texas - was running against the GOP Congress, just as his evocations of the dignity of the WH ran against Slick Willie.

          3 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
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        6. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          28. It's perilous to overdraw conclusions from 1998-99: the party electorates are much more polarized now. Nobody thinks in terms of the kinds of bipartisan stuff that got done between 1995 & 2004.

          4 replies 3 retweets 17 likes
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        7. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          29. But what we know is that Clinton's impeachment damaged & degraded both sides, Clinton & his team over the scandal, Congressional Republicans over their response; the voters hated it & turned to somebody who stayed out of the whole mess.

          3 replies 6 retweets 20 likes
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        8. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          30. In 2020, staying out is not an option. Trump's up for re-election. Biden is part of the scandal. Warren, Sanders, & Harris would all have to vote on removing Trump from office. Even if the same pox-on-both-sides attitude emerges again, there's no obvious place for it to go.

          3 replies 5 retweets 23 likes
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        9. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 27 Sep 2019

          /fin (I think)

          4 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
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        10. End of conversation
        1. Theodore Herrera‏ @TheodoreHerre15 27 Sep 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank

          He walked free and to their credit Dems rallied behind their man...unity is the path to power...Republicans must learn this secret

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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