13. So what happens? 1998 is dominated by the Lewinsky story, which grows out of pre-existing lawsuits & investigations but gets launched to orbit by new media (eg Drudge). Clinton lies to the voters, lies under oath, lies to everyone, gets caught.
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24. In 2000, following the traditional post-incumbent dynamic but helped along by the drag of the scandal itself, Bush beats Gore, creating the red-blue map we know today by a big swing in socially conservative states.
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25. Scandal puts Gore in a lose-lose: voters are tired of the stink, but it makes him gunshy about embracing Clinton, & he picks a running mate who had been one of Clinton's harshest critics. (Bush picks Cheney, who'd also stayed out of impeachment fights).
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26. Win for GOP, right? But not so fast. House majority erodes by another 2 seats in 2000, Dems pick up 4 Senate seats so that a single defection could - and does - strip Republicans of the majority. Only in 2002, post-9/11, does the Congressional GOP turn the page.
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27. If you weren't there, it's easy to forget how much of Bush's 2000 campaign - "compassionate conservatism," stresses on his bipartisan record in Texas - was running against the GOP Congress, just as his evocations of the dignity of the WH ran against Slick Willie.
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28. It's perilous to overdraw conclusions from 1998-99: the party electorates are much more polarized now. Nobody thinks in terms of the kinds of bipartisan stuff that got done between 1995 & 2004.
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29. But what we know is that Clinton's impeachment damaged & degraded both sides, Clinton & his team over the scandal, Congressional Republicans over their response; the voters hated it & turned to somebody who stayed out of the whole mess.
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30. In 2020, staying out is not an option. Trump's up for re-election. Biden is part of the scandal. Warren, Sanders, & Harris would all have to vote on removing Trump from office. Even if the same pox-on-both-sides attitude emerges again, there's no obvious place for it to go.
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He walked free and to their credit Dems rallied behind their man...unity is the path to power...Republicans must learn this secret
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