Democratic field, updatedpic.twitter.com/RT72Fc3IUZ
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This is not a *scientific* approach, but given the sequential nature of primaries & influence of early states, I ran an average of the RCP poll averages: national & the first four states, which helps clarify the tiers:pic.twitter.com/opO9Xiory0
Warren & Buttigieg are both stronger in the first two states than they are overall, which is partly demographic but also reflects the retail dynamic.
Booker, Beto & Yang are all polling better nationally than they are in any of the first four states, which is not a great place to be.
OTOH, the NV & SC polling includes polls back to July, which are not the freshest.
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