Yup. If Joe wins going away in SC, he’ll probably do the same in the South on Super Tuesday, and that’s game over for the primaries.
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Well he will lose if he only wins one of the first three imo. It's gonna look bad if he doesn't win until SC
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Why do people act like primary results are completely stochastic phenomena? If Biden wins early it’ll greatly boost his electability argument in later primaries
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This tells me that Biden is still killing it with black voters. I don't see how anyone else can win if that holds up.
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@SeanTrende If he’s still in the race, does anyone see any way that Biden could lose South Carolina?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Most likely outcome would be Warren, followed by brokered convention. And if he loses two of the first three, I don't think he wins SC by 25.
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The all-the-marbles question is whether his commanding lead with black voters is sensitive to results in IA/NH.
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If he wins both IA and SC, while holding his own in NH and SC, he's going to clean up in the South and the Midwest. He's polled well in delegate rich states(TX,FL,PA etc). Would be tough to beat him at that point.
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