I'd add to the conclusion here that if Democrats win Texas, it's entirely Trump's fault. Ted Cruz, who beat Trump by 17 in the TX primary, has won it twice in good D years. W & Perry both won many times. Greg Abbott won easily in 2018 & 2014. Trump is a bad fit for Texas.https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1159432668511121408 …
Which brings us back to Sean's point: Texas has more suburban voters & fewer rural voters than some of the sates in the Midwest where Trump did better than past Republicans.
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I don't know the numbers. I grew up in rural Texas. Live in rural Ohio now. Just because the western half of Texas is sparsely populated in the rural areas doesn't mean that the share of the rural vote is small or insignificant in Texas. Have you seen the *size* of the eastern...
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...of the eastern half (where I grew up) of Texas where there is a much higher rural population? Difference between Texas rural voters and WI/PA/MI rural voters is that rural voters in TX are overwhelmingly GOP. Biggest reason Trump flipped some upper Midwest states isn't....
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....because he had such a greater share of rural voters than typical GOP Pres candidates, it's because he flipped a lot of blue-collar DEM voters who voted for Obama but couldn't stand HILLARY. Trump appealed to them with his protectionist/tariffs campaign rhetoric.
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