If you're wondering, when you plot them against the national trend, the pattern may be messier, but the three Upper Midwest states all trended R from 1988-2000, and have been doing so again since 2008.pic.twitter.com/twEmnI2geF
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If you're wondering, when you plot them against the national trend, the pattern may be messier, but the three Upper Midwest states all trended R from 1988-2000, and have been doing so again since 2008.pic.twitter.com/twEmnI2geF
And the more credibly populist a guy sounds, the more they like him.
I would say Trump made MN competitive in 2016 - lost by 45k votes.
Counter-argument: population swings to college Ed whites in Twin City Metro not really replicated in WI
Madison may be roughly maxed out for Dems, Greater Twin Cities is not. Though Rs certainly not maxed out in rural MN.
I'll need to see it to believe it with Minny. There's a path to win, but R's need to run the table to take it. Minny is the last Midwestern State to flip (outside of Illinois which is more of a Coastal State culturally) and more of a D tradition.
I’ve been skeptical of Minny flipping myself. That being said, airing Omar in all ads nonstop just might do the trick.
And IA had a strong statewide Democratic party about ten years ago. Elected Culver, Harkin, Obama (2x), Gore.
For a non-wonk like me, how does population drift work into these prognostications? The northwest exurbs of MPLS are surging like mad, Emmer's deep red district in particular, people moving there heavily for the top rated schools.
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