My assumption has been that after 3 terms and end of Cold War, a GOP win in 92 was not likely.
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I'm definitely shaped by my lived experience on this one. Listened to Perot at the National Press Club on the radio while driving around as a city inspector. I'd voted for Bush in 88 but thought Perot made a lot of sense. 1/2
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When he entered the race I was excited by him and turned off of Bush. When it became clear he was, well, crazy, I switched to Clinton. 2/2
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Exit polling at the time revealed Perot pulled evenly from Bush & Clinton. Perot won no electoral votes. Ran strongest in TX and FL which Bush won anyway. There's always some unknowable Butterfly Effect stuff, but I believe Perot costing Bush the election is a myth.
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I agree, but didn't it also keep Clinton from winning 50% of the vote? I remember hearing Carville say that it didn't allow them to assume a mandate.
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