(and I say that as someone who usually agrees with you to at least some degree). But there is no way that seat stays open through the election and Democrats see Trump filling it as legit. I'd even go further and say the whole "he didn't get a hearing" is a red herring.
Fair to argue Haynesworth/Carswell as the real beginning. Fortas did kick off the modern confirmation wars, but given the bipartisan nature of the filibuster, closeness to Election Day & prominent ethics questions, it's less of a clean break than Bork.
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Haynesworth/Carswell. Scholars understand this.
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Carswell, though, was at least presented as a nonideological vote, and as Brian noted, the whole battle then went away until the abortive Rehnquist filibuster (including by Biden!) in 1986, which was a dress rehearsal for Bork.
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