They were off by 3 in that Florida poll; being off by the same here would mean Biden +1. Even being off by 7, as in that Pennsylvania poll, would mean Trump +3, down from Trump +9 in TX in 2016 (in 2018, Q had Cruz +5). Any of those outcomes is Very Bad News for Republicans. https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1136338525262176261 …
It is, in fact, early. But Reagan is a bad analogy. The economy was in the dumps in 1982 & booming by 1984. After a decade of malaise, 1983 had some lag time before people absorbed that a corner had been turned.