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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 5 Jun 2019

    Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Joe Concha

    This, on the other hand, will be a trend worth following in 2020. If there is actually a significant "shy Trump" vote you would expect to see a lot of voters who won't say they're voting Trump, but are more willing to predict he wins.https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/1136345784457338881 …

    Dan McLaughlin added,

    Joe ConchaVerified account @JoeConchaTV
    CNN poll: 54 percent say Trump will be re-elected | TheHill https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/447137-cnn-poll-54-percent-say-trump-will-be-re-elected …
    12:00 PM - 5 Jun 2019
    • 5 Retweets
    • 16 Likes
    • TommyInVegas Fungusaur Mr. Bison SPACE FORCE ONE The Cocaína JT Geehr Chance Gardener Jill B. Nicholas Jahr
    5 replies 5 retweets 16 likes
      1. Nathan Wurtzel‏ @NathanWurtzel 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        This is an interesting result to me. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. GumbyPI 🌐‏ @GumbyPI 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        It could also include Democrats who have convinced themselves that Russia will steal the election. Whatever the case, it has historically been a poor measure, as it assume Bill Clinton was done for and Obama's number was meh.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Blueacre‏ @blueacre 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        That theory comes to mind but what to make of: https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/majority-expects-obama-to-lose-re-election/ …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @blueacre

        Obama would have lost in 2011.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Reply Guy‏ @peanutweet 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        exactly. most of us will quietly go to the polls.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Brad Crawford‏ @provoter 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        Brad Crawford Retweeted Brad Crawford

        https://twitter.com/provoter/status/1132709174821949443 …

        Brad Crawford added,

        Brad Crawford @provoter
        This illustrates the reverse-Bradley Effect that we may call the 'Trump Effect.' Many who support Trump won't respond to a poll or won't explicitly express support if they do respond, but they'll support him implicitly in a question such as 'do you think he'll win reelection?' https://twitter.com/STUinSD/status/1132685849483730944 …
        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Brad Crawford‏ @provoter 5 Jun 2019
        Replying to @provoter @baseballcrank

        And yes, I should've just said "shy trump voter" instead of Trump Effect, but I was trying to riff off of Bradley Effect. The point is that indirect questions - and the "do you think Trump'll win reelection" is a good one - are probably better indicators of Trump support for now.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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