They were off by 3 in that Florida poll; being off by the same here would mean Biden +1. Even being off by 7, as in that Pennsylvania poll, would mean Trump +3, down from Trump +9 in TX in 2016 (in 2018, Q had Cruz +5). Any of those outcomes is Very Bad News for Republicans. https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1136338525262176261 …
-
-
I don't think he is either, but he is almost certainly in worse shape now in Texas - 3 years in with a booming economy - than he was in 2016. And the polls *overstated* Cruz & Abbott by a few points in 2018.https://twitter.com/Ericb1980/status/1136345825053855744 …
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Some people seem to think that since a few polls are off that all polls should be ignored. Ironically, many of these same people will be retweeting poll results that they like.
#ConfirmationBiasThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
I was the guy who gave Trump a puncher's chance on election day. I just couldn't figure out where the last 4-5 EVs would come from. the trifecta of PA, MI and WI never occurred to me. Predicting results before the D candidate is even chosen is a fool's errand.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
It is, in fact, early. But Reagan is a bad analogy. The economy was in the dumps in 1982 & booming by 1984. After a decade of malaise, 1983 had some lag time before people absorbed that a corner had been turned.
End of conversation
-
-
-
Voters haven't yet had to seriously contemplate the reality of a Biden (who isn't going to be the nominee, say I
) or Sanders or whoever presidency. The cost-free anti-Trump response to a poll question is path of least resistance for now, so let's not get too certain either way.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.