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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 Apr 2019

      Nate Silver Retweeted The Washington Post

      It seems like if you have a "Trump's gonna win in the landslide because of the economy" prediction you have to work a little harder to explain how that's gonna work when his approval rating is 41% now despite a really good economy.https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1122675386406580225 …

      Nate Silver added,

      The Washington PostVerified account @washingtonpost
      Opinion: The 2020 election isn’t going to be close https://wapo.st/2ZHnJsU 
      304 replies 545 retweets 3,509 likes
    2. (((David Shor)))‏Verified account @davidshor 28 Apr 2019
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      I don't really buy it, but the argument political scientists would historically make is that economic fundamentals should reassert themself as you get closer (IE, Dukakis was always doomed, etc etc)

      3 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
    3. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 28 Apr 2019
      Replying to @davidshor @NateSilver538

      Yeah, the argument is that job approval isn't a fundamental; it has endogeneity problems as a predictor. Don't completely buy it, but don't dismiss it either.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    4. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 28 Apr 2019
      Replying to @SeanTrende @davidshor

      Job approval is definitely not a "fundamental", but the fundamentals models that don't use job approval as a crutch basically do no better than random:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/models-based-on-fundamentals-have-failed-at-predicting-presidential-elections/ …

      2 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    5. Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 28 Apr 2019
      Replying to @NateSilver538 @davidshor

      We were together in that war! Hard to believe it was seven years ago. In any event, I just wonder to what degree the uptick in BHO's job approval in 2012 drove the outcome, and to what extent it was people deciding to vote for BHO and then deciding they liked him.

      3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 28 Apr 2019
      Replying to @SeanTrende @NateSilver538 @davidshor

      I think we can easily conclude both that (1) Trump's low approval ratings represent a real weakness compared to where he "fundamentally" should be & (2) Trump is likely to get the votes of a few points worth of people who will, honestly, never say they approve of him.

      7:45 PM - 28 Apr 2019
      • 7 Likes
      • Mark Layton Nathan Sheppard Sean T at RCP beans nadinecarroll James Fred the Great
      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. Richard Yeselson‏ @yeselson 28 Apr 2019
          Replying to @baseballcrank @SeanTrende and

          Indeed. Which brings him right to his and the GOPs presidential baseline in recent cycles: 46-47%.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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