1. It's early, but let's talk electoral consequences. Obviously the #1 electoral consequence of any investigation is if it successfully nails its target, and #2 is the cloud of an ongoing probe. But what about when one ends without the scalp?
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6. Republicans should not be complacent; some of these voters are just not coming back until Trump is gone, because they're appalled by him. The easiest gets are those who held their noses in 2016 due to the Hillary email scandal, & got spooked when Trump had his own probe.
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7. How big a factor is the vote of suburbanites whose chief concern with Trump is scandals and investigations? Probably not that large, but potentially decisive in close races, especially House districts that are heavily suburban & were drawn to lean R.
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8. The other obvious outcome: it'll be a *lot* harder not only to beat Trump in a primary (always a longshot) but even now to recruit a vaguely plausible challenger.
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End of conversation
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