1. It's early, but let's talk electoral consequences. Obviously the #1 electoral consequence of any investigation is if it successfully nails its target, and #2 is the cloud of an ongoing probe. But what about when one ends without the scalp?
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4. These were voters to whom a Congressional check on Trump was important. Partly due to his personality & his dramatic acts on immigration & trade, but also out of concern over scandals & investigations.
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5. Given that these are recent R voters, the end of the centerpiece Trump scandal probe may remove an obstacle to voters who may be happy with the economy & alarmed at the Dems' left-wing tilt coming home. For Ds, it raises the need to keep other probes/scandals in the news.
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6. Republicans should not be complacent; some of these voters are just not coming back until Trump is gone, because they're appalled by him. The easiest gets are those who held their noses in 2016 due to the Hillary email scandal, & got spooked when Trump had his own probe.
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7. How big a factor is the vote of suburbanites whose chief concern with Trump is scandals and investigations? Probably not that large, but potentially decisive in close races, especially House districts that are heavily suburban & were drawn to lean R.
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8. The other obvious outcome: it'll be a *lot* harder not only to beat Trump in a primary (always a longshot) but even now to recruit a vaguely plausible challenger.
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End of conversation
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So here's the number 3 predicted that you wouldn't mention the fact is these are women repulsed by Trump for other reasons. number 4 is coming you're on a roll.
@AlexMLeoThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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It has to marginally effect independents and the GOP voters that defected in 2018. Make them at least consider that a lot of the Trump criticism is hyperbole. I think the effect is that the Dems may have to moderated at the top of the ticket.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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