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baseballcrank's profile
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
Dan McLaughlin
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@baseballcrank

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Dan McLaughlinVerified account

@baseballcrank

Senior Writer @NRO. Reaganite, Catholic, Mets fan, ex-lawyer. Opinions 100% my own, but you can share them. Not the Cardinals broadcaster.

New York
nationalreview.com/author/dan-mcl…
Joined May 2009

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    Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

    1. It's early, but let's talk electoral consequences. Obviously the #1 electoral consequence of any investigation is if it successfully nails its target, and #2 is the cloud of an ongoing probe. But what about when one ends without the scalp?

    11:18 AM - 25 Mar 2019
    • 4 Retweets
    • 14 Likes
    • Ryan Michaud Frank Altschuler Michele Schiesser PJ Boyle 42nd Earl of Whig Christopher Smith Titus Techera Clifford Smith Toluwaniyi Adebayo
    4 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        2. End of this probe is unlikely to tamp down D base rage at Trump or affect turnout of marginal D voters. It could help wavering Rs at the margins. But there's one group where investigations may matter a lot: suburban voters who deserted GOP in 2018.

        3 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        3. A geographically crucial (eg, suburban) segment of 2018 D House voters had voted for Rs once or more in 2010-2012-2014-2016. (Some of them bailed in 2016 at the sight of Trump) These were generally not voters who took a left on economic issues or traditional R social stances.

        3 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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      4. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        4. These were voters to whom a Congressional check on Trump was important. Partly due to his personality & his dramatic acts on immigration & trade, but also out of concern over scandals & investigations.

        2 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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      5. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        5. Given that these are recent R voters, the end of the centerpiece Trump scandal probe may remove an obstacle to voters who may be happy with the economy & alarmed at the Dems' left-wing tilt coming home. For Ds, it raises the need to keep other probes/scandals in the news.

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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      6. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        6. Republicans should not be complacent; some of these voters are just not coming back until Trump is gone, because they're appalled by him. The easiest gets are those who held their noses in 2016 due to the Hillary email scandal, & got spooked when Trump had his own probe.

        4 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      7. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        7. How big a factor is the vote of suburbanites whose chief concern with Trump is scandals and investigations? Probably not that large, but potentially decisive in close races, especially House districts that are heavily suburban & were drawn to lean R.

        7 replies 2 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Dan McLaughlin‏Verified account @baseballcrank 25 Mar 2019

        8. The other obvious outcome: it'll be a *lot* harder not only to beat Trump in a primary (always a longshot) but even now to recruit a vaguely plausible challenger.

        1 reply 3 retweets 6 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Flavored Cats‏ @tpwk47 25 Mar 2019
        Replying to @Good_Lt @baseballcrank

        No persuadable voter is going to read the report, so how would that factor into any analysis?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Tony Lima‏ @TonyLimaPOL 25 Mar 2019
        Replying to @baseballcrank

        @threadreaderapp unroll

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp 25 Mar 2019
        Replying to @TonyLimaPOL

        Hello there is your unroll: Thread by @baseballcrank: "1. It's early, but let's talk electoral consequences. Obviously the electoral consequence of any investigation is if […]" https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1110244471432769541.html … See you soon. 🤖

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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