1. I've talked before about the diverging demographic paths for Democrats in 2020: they can prioritize either the Old Blue Wall (MI, PA, WI, OH, MN, IA, NH, ME) or the Purple Future (AZ, NC, GA, FL, TX). Both parties want to do both, but priorities drive decisions.
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2. The part we haven't talked about enough is the Senate. The Senate map in 2020 could have five contested races in the Old Blue Wall (IA, ME, MI, NH & MN), two of which are Dem pickup targets. But the road to a majority requires net D+3 (or D+4 if Trump's re-elected).
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3. "Net" is important bc holding AL in a POTUS election year will be really hard. So if you're looking to nail down holds & shoot for big game in the SEN, Ds have more theoretically possible pickups beyond the obvious (CO/AZ) in GA, NC, TX, maybe even MS, holding NM & AL.pic.twitter.com/CwLYF9WuV4
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4. The quandary is the same one we saw in 2016, 2018: the Purple Future states are high-payoff but also harder to win, and if Democrats lose a bunch of close races there they could end up regretting it if the GOP is able to retake ground in the Midwest & New England.
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Dan McLaughlin Retweeted Sahil Kapur
5. By contrast, this is bad news. I'd love it if we could elect a more conservative Senator in Maine than Susan Collins, but the evidence of this being a workable plan is pretty thin on the ground (GOV races are different)https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1110228060358483968 …
Dan McLaughlin added,
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Replying to @cgberube
Yeah, I just don't see a Paul Le Page type winning a Senate race there in 2020.
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She can still drive me nuts, but what Republicans need is to stop giving away winnable races in places where more conservative candidates could win, not wishcasting that Maine was different.
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