2. The part we haven't talked about enough is the Senate. The Senate map in 2020 could have five contested races in the Old Blue Wall (IA, ME, MI, NH & MN), two of which are Dem pickup targets. But the road to a majority requires net D+3 (or D+4 if Trump's re-elected).
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3. "Net" is important bc holding AL in a POTUS election year will be really hard. So if you're looking to nail down holds & shoot for big game in the SEN, Ds have more theoretically possible pickups beyond the obvious (CO/AZ) in GA, NC, TX, maybe even MS, holding NM & AL.pic.twitter.com/CwLYF9WuV4
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4. The quandary is the same one we saw in 2016, 2018: the Purple Future states are high-payoff but also harder to win, and if Democrats lose a bunch of close races there they could end up regretting it if the GOP is able to retake ground in the Midwest & New England.
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5. By contrast, this is bad news. I'd love it if we could elect a more conservative Senator in Maine than Susan Collins, but the evidence of this being a workable plan is pretty thin on the ground (GOV races are different)https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1110228060358483968 …
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