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The Base Rate Times
@base_rate_times
News through prediction markets
baseratetimes.comJoined April 2023

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Latest on 🇷🇺Russia🇺🇦Ukraine: 🚨 Zelensky 'tacitly acknowledges' counteroffensive is underway... Counteroffensive: ◦ 🇺🇦📉 22% chance of Crimea land bridge being cut by Oct, down from 34% says But land bridge odds unchanged at 28%🇺🇦 ~10%~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Latest on Russia-Ukraine: ◦ 📈🇷🇺Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78% ◦ 📉🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-15% ◦ 📈🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of retaking Sevastopol jumps to 16% from 9%, says @Hypermind_com ◦ (But chance of retaking Crimea… Show more
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Some recent 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine links: Putin says Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed so far... Dam collapse a global problem as waters may poison Black Sea, Zelenskiy says... An “extraordinary” 700,000 people are in need of drinking water, says UN’s top aid official...… ~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Re-reading my tweet, I should clarify: Link on Zaporizhzhia plant was posted yesterday, before the dam break The flooding itself is “highly unlikely” to cause a nuclear incident (from what I understand)
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some relieving news amid the horrible Kakhovka disaster from @JP_Rathbone: a nuclear incident is “highly unlikely” despite the loss of water supplies that are used to cool nuclear fuel at the nearby Zaporizhzhia power plant ft.com/content/fbbfde
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Some recent 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine links: Kakhovka dam blown up, flooding territory ahead of expected counteroffensive... Zaporizhzhia plant on the brink of "radiation accident", says state nuclear company... Ukraine’s counteroffensive appear to be underway... Fake Putin address… ~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Latest on Russia-Ukraine: ◦ 📈🇷🇺Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78% ◦ 📉🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-15% ◦ 📈🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of retaking Sevastopol jumps to 16% from 9%, says @Hypermind_com ◦ (But chance of retaking Crimea… Show more
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"If this is true it's the most important event in the history of the world" No change in prediction markets (yet?):🛸Alien tech in solar system by 2030: 1%📡Reply from Luyten's Star by 2046: 1%👽Extraterrestrials discovered in solar system by 2050: 20%📡Alien…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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If this is true it's the most important event in the history of the world. thedebrief.org/intelligence-o
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Latest on Russia-Ukraine:📈🇷🇺Russia ~85% likely to gain territory, up from ~78% ◦ 📉🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of controlling DNR/LNR down -5 points to ~5-15%📈🇺🇦Ukraine's odds of retaking Sevastopol jumps to 16% from 9%, says ◦ (But chance of retaking Crimea…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Tail risk watch: ⚠️3 Israeli soldiers, Egyptian border guard killed in gunbattle at the border... ~7% chance of Israel-Egypt war by 2030 on , no change from this news (yet?) [Note: low liquidity, only 19 predictions] Article summary (AI-generated): - The violence…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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Opportunity on ? 'Debt ceiling hike by Jun 5' is still trading at 97c for Yes Link: kalshi.com/markets/dceil/
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🚨Biden signs debt ceiling bill with two days to spare... Default risk down to ~1%: - Jul 1, @metaculus: 1% - Jul 4, @Hypermind_com: 1% - Nov 1, @superforecaster: 1%, down from 2% - '24, @metaculus: 1% - '24, @Kalshi: 4% twitter.com/base_rate_time…
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🚨Biden signs debt ceiling bill with two days to spare... Default risk down to ~1%: - Jul 1, : 1% - Jul 4, : 1% - Nov 1, : 1%, down from 2% - '24, : 1% - '24, : 4%
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🚨Biden says he will sign the debt limit bill tomorrow... (Apparently he is a procrastinator) Default risk: - Jul 1, @metaculus: 1% - Jul 4, @Hypermind_com: 1%, down from 3% - Nov 1, @superforecaster: 2% - '24, @metaculus: 1%, down from 2% - '24, @Kalshi: 3% ~99% chance ceiling… twitter.com/base_rate_time… Show more
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🚨Biden says he will sign the debt limit bill tomorrow... (Apparently he is a procrastinator) Default risk: - Jul 1, : 1% - Jul 4, : 1%, down from 3% - Nov 1, : 2% - '24, : 1%, down from 2% - '24, : 3% ~99% chance ceiling…~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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🚨Senate narrowly passes debt ceiling deal... (Biden next) ~99% chance ceiling raised before June 5 deadline Default risk: - Jul 1, @metaculus: 1% - Nov 1, @superforecaster: 2%, down from 4% - '24, @metaculus: 2%, down from 3-4% - '24, @Kalshi: 3%, down from 5% - Jul 4,… twitter.com/base_rate_time… Show more
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Good news: was featured by The New York Times last month! twitter.com/luanalopeslara ('Good news' is my new segment, where I track mainstream coverage of prediction markets)
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Good news: First time @metaculus 'highlighted so centrally' by The Economist! I hereby challenge @TheEconomist to make me redundant by prominently referencing prediction markets in every article (and by not titling the charts 'astrology') twitter.com/fianxu/status/…
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US Air Force clarifies: "Despite this being a hypothetical example, this illustrates the real-world challenges posed by AI-powered capability..." says the original source, Col. Hamilton, Chief of AI Test & Operations (hat tip ): twitter.com/manic_pixie_ag
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Important context about this story from @harris_edouard (hat tip @andrewb10687674) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: twitter.com/harris_edouard The headline is misleading
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Important context about this story from (hat tip ) It was a constructed scenario (i.e. prepared story), not a rules-based simulation: twitter.com/harris_edouard The headline is misleading
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Currently tracking 57 AI prediction markets... but none align well with this scenario? Suggestions for a better suited prediction market? (Ideally >100 forecasters and more specific than 'will AI end humanity by <distant year>') twitter.com/base_rate_time…
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🚨Senate narrowly passes debt ceiling deal... (Biden next) ~99% chance ceiling raised before June 5 deadline Default risk: - Jul 1, : 1% - Nov 1, : 2%, down from 4% - '24, : 2%, down from 3-4% - '24, : 3%, down from 5% - Jul 4,… ~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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🚨US House passes debt ceiling deal 314-117... (Senate next) ~95% chance ceiling raised before June 5 deadline Default risk: - Jul 1, @metaculus: 1% - Jul 4, @Hypermind_com: 2% - Nov 1, @superforecaster: 2%, down from 4% - '24, @metaculus: 3% - '24, @Kalshi: 3%, down from 5%
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Currently tracking 57 AI prediction markets... but none align well with this scenario? Suggestions for a better suited prediction market? (Ideally >100 forecasters and more specific than 'will AI end humanity by <distant year>')
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The people have spoken Coming soon: AI risk dashboard + AI timeline according to prediction markets 🫡 twitter.com/base_rate_time…
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Some of today's 🇷🇺Russia-🇺🇦Ukraine links: ‘Nuclear weapons for everyone’ who joins Belarus and Russia... Zelenskiy demands 'clear' decision on NATO entry... Russia drops plan for state-run crypto exchange... Drones hit Moscow for the first time... South Africa mulls options… ~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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US debt ceiling latest... Default risk: 6%, halves from 12% say Superforecasters Default by July: ~1% risk, down from ~3% Debt ceiling: ~6% chance raised before June 1, but >90% chance by July (Deadline June 5 says Yellen) Latest news: Hardline Republicans threaten deal...
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🚨 US debt ceiling: Deal agreed 'in principle' ~15% chance raised before June 1, down from ~20% yesterday (New deadline June 5) But >90% chance raised before July (Two new markets added) Default risk down -2 points: - by Nov 1, @superforecaster: 12% (-2 points from yesterday)… twitter.com/base_rate_time… Show more
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Good news: First time 'highlighted so centrally' by The Economist! I hereby challenge to make me redundant by prominently referencing prediction markets in every article (and by not titling the charts 'astrology')
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This is the first time that a @Metaculus forecast has been highlighted so centrally in an Economist piece. twitter.com/TheEconomist/s…
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🚨 US debt ceiling: Deal agreed 'in principle' ~15% chance raised before June 1, down from ~20% yesterday (New deadline June 5) But >90% chance raised before July (Two new markets added) Default risk down -2 points: - by Nov 1, : 12% (-2 points from yesterday)… ~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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US debt ceiling Clash of the Titans: Superforecasters vs Metaculus!! Who will be proven right on US default risk?!? (Sorry, mocking news headlines) Default...? - by Nov 1, @superforecaster: 14% (No change) - by '24, @metaculus: 6% (-4 points from 10% peak) - by '24, @Kalshi: 9%… Show more
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Just test version, feedback pls!🥺 Testing lots of ideas. Can AI... * find historical data to contextualise the story? * advise forecast updates based on the story? * make counter-arguments? * translate articles from e.g. Chinese? * detect bias & cross-reference claims?
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AI-generated article summaries live: - 3-4 simple bullet points - Neutral language, no sensationalism - Prioritise 'Five Ws' I make AI take the Journalist's Oath: "clear statement, accuracy & fairness are fundamental to good journalism" Almost like a reporter of old (P.S. the… Show more
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US debt ceiling Clash of the Titans: Superforecasters vs Metaculus!! Who will be proven right on US default risk?!? (Sorry, mocking news headlines) Default...? - by Nov 1, : 14% (No change) - by '24, : 6% (-4 points from 10% peak) - by '24, : 9%~~~~~~~~~~ hf3f8e3a 992bba08-8399-4bde-ab97-c1305e64876 SSR-I18N f2c6ac64-eb07-4bf8-bb18-52a36cf153b7 hf3f8e3a ~~~~~~~~~~
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