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Incredible.
Last week I called out a journalist who I thought was writing a piece that would be a disservice to public health.
Unfortunately, my concerns proved well-founded. Recode’s virus piece ignores WHO & CDC, gets the science wrong…and focuses on handshakes!
Thread: 
pic.twitter.com/fnxOmRL7j5
As context: - WHO has declared a global public health emergency - Director of Mayo Clinic vaccine research: "basically at a pandemic now" - CDC: virus may “take a foothold in the US” - Fmr FDA commissioner: pandemic "likely" That’s the grave reality of the current situation.pic.twitter.com/jg9VyKvGxf
But this isn't reflected in the article. Instead it has: - clickbait lede - wrong science - author w/o domain expertise - bad faith request for comment - outrage at assuming bad faith - article that proves assumption of bad faith right! See for yourself: http://archive.is/EPGK6 pic.twitter.com/pTAfZDmauY
The article contains many statements that are false or omit so much context they mislead readers. Let's go claim by claim. RECODE: "cases...have been contained to those who have recently traveled to Wuhan and their direct family members" FACT CHECK: False, according to CDC/WHOpic.twitter.com/C3itXFA29k
RECODE: "chances are...low that you would come into contact at work or in a public setting" CONTEXT: - Confirmed transmission at conferences - One person spread to N people - Hundreds quarantined due to 1 attendee - Major conference canceled - Contagion means risk is increasingpic.twitter.com/3wviweQN0B
RECODE: "reducing handshakes...not specifically [recommended] for coronavirus" FACT CHECK: False, according to CDC "Human coronaviruses most commonly spread from an infected person to others through...close personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands"pic.twitter.com/qjIUbSwEBX
RECODE:
fecal transmission "still unclear"
CONTEXT:
- Related SARS virus spread through feces at Amoy Gardens
- Infected 300+ people, 42 deaths
- #SARSCoV2 has been discovered in feces
- Patients have diarrhea
- Multiple scientists now implicate fecal transmissionpic.twitter.com/sur4fSIkyU
RECODE: Quotes non-med/biotech expert on "paranoid fear about disease" CONTEXT: "Zuckerberg SF General is prepared with 50 isolation rooms that will keep patients from transmitting the virus to others." "hospital staff plans to treat patients while wearing protective gear"pic.twitter.com/c8OftmLio5
RECODE: Implies Beijing has no outbreak, and that virus is distant and far away FACT CHECK: False, 370+ cases in Beijing according to JHU dashboard Also, NPR reports Beijing is building another 1000-bed instant hospital to prepare for predicted uptick in coronavirus cases.pic.twitter.com/AyS65QBHaP
RECODE: Implies it's paranoid to cancel Lunar New Year to prevent contagion CONTEXT: Wuhan: wanted to cancel events New York: canceled events Miami: canceled events If Wuhan, NYC, Miami all wanted to cancel events…shouldn’t SF have done so out of abundance of caution?pic.twitter.com/XCLMKXprgi
RECODE: Quotes SF officials assuring people of "no public health risk" without challenging them CONTEXT: - SF strewn with feces, urine, syringes - NPR: SF like "dirtiest slums in the world" - Berkeley prof: "once fecal matter dries it can become airborne releasing viruses"pic.twitter.com/F2hf8Jm4LL
RECODE:
Implies #covid2019 only "scary" to "public" because "new"
CONTEXT:
Omits
- NEJM, Lancet papers on sheer severity
- Caijing’s courageous reporting on severity
- Math of tail risk for a pandemic
- Fact that many qualified PhDs/MDs, both in SV & outside, have voiced concernpic.twitter.com/YfLLm4XHtx
RECODE: Implies flu is a "greater threat" CONTEXT: Omits - Columbia's Ian Lipkin: "I reject that soundly" - 100X increase in Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU] - 100X increase in *non*-Chinese cases in 3 weeks [JHU] - Again, pandemic threat is based on math of tail riskpic.twitter.com/diGLiSKedh
RECODE: Calls tech "terrified" and "paranoid" CONTEXT: Omits in-depth discussion of: - Sheer scale of Chinese quarantine - Hospitalization & fatality rates - Contagiousness estimates - 100X growth in non-China cases across 25+ countries - Confirmed transmission at conferencespic.twitter.com/gWfBsyBMmQ
RECODE: Also does not discuss: - tech the Chinese are using to fight virus - hardware implications of supply chain disruption - what biotech is doing: antivirals, vaccines, diagnostics This obvious omission was *also* predicted in advance!https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1225862128168570887 …
It's 2000+ words. I could go on. But there's a point. - I assumed bad faith, as I had context - Not just on this piece, but on tech journalism in 2020 - Some lacked context & didn't understand why I called it out But as you can see, it was indeed a piece about handshakes!pic.twitter.com/XM5RrxvEes
Why was I right? Contra one comment, I’m not a psychic. I just have a mental model that correctly predicts the actions of many tech journalists. The sad truth is they are incentivized to produce clickbait. This is partly tech's fault too: social media created these incentives.
Again, this article is something of a rubicon for tech journalism, as it crosses the line into a hazard to public health.
More later, but for now:
- Take virus seriously, WHO/CDC are
- Don’t take unserious journalists seriously
- And avoid handshakes!
https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1227471118233219072 …
CITATIONS Twitter didn't have space to link these inline, but I compiled all the references in this thread into a Medium post. Here it is!https://medium.com/@balajis/citations-for-the-recode-handshake-debunking-b2751adc7e69 …
BACKGROUND I'm not big on credentialism. Need multidisciplinary effort vs virus. But since some deem it relevant, my bio: - Taught bioinformatics at Stanford - Papers in clinical/microbial genomics - MIT TR35 - Cofounder/CTO of biotech co sold for $375Mhttps://www.technologyreview.com/lists/innovators-under-35/2013/entrepreneur/balaji-srinivasan/ …
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