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backus's profile
John Backus
John Backus
John Backus
@backus

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John Backus

@backus

Seeking alternative compression. Hopefully wrong on average. Shameless. Started @getcognito and @bloom

San Francisco, CA
Joined August 2012

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    1. John Backus‏ @backus Apr 19

      Does personal knowledge about psychology or rationality actually help with large or small personal decision making? Seems like a premise of learning about cognitive biases, LessWrong, etc.

      4 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Brian Lui‏ @brianluidog Apr 20
      Replying to @backus

      Possible answer: it's helpful to de-bias when using deliberative mindset, but very harmful to de-bias in implemental mindset. Few people can separate these mindsets. (Those that can are great leaders)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      John Backus‏ @backus Apr 20
      Replying to @brianluidog

      Not familiar with the terms so I looked em up. Basically, are you saying de-biasing is good for figuring out whether to adopt a goal but harmful when planning the steps for achieving a goal? Is this a correct read?

      12:51 AM - 20 Apr 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Brian Lui‏ @brianluidog Apr 20
          Replying to @backus

          Sorry for not being clear! When we're figuring out our goals and how to reach them, it's helpful to de-bias, to be more accurate. Once we figure out our goals and process, we switch to implementation mindset. De-biasing is harmful here because it tends to reduce overconfidence.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Brian Lui‏ @brianluidog Apr 20
          Replying to @brianluidog @backus

          Forgot to mention that implementation mindset is where we actually work towards our goal. Overconfidence is useful because it improves the chances of success. I first came across deliberative/implemental mindset in Phil Rosenzweig's book "Left Brain, Right Stuff".

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. John Backus‏ @backus Apr 20
          Replying to @brianluidog

          John Backus Retweeted John Backus

          Cool, thanks for the clarification. Interesting you are optimizing for preserving over-confidence. Sounds like what I mentioned here https://twitter.com/backus/status/987223845575639040 … I might also argue that you might just waste your time too trying to debias each step vs. just executing

          John Backus added,

          John Backus @backus
          Maybe we are worse at achieving goals if we remove our own bias in favor of correctness. Convincing yourself that your new company is a guaranteed success probably makes you a more convincing leader. Your politics are probably more convincing if you give in to confirmation bias.
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Brian Lui‏ @brianluidog Apr 20
          Replying to @backus

          That's a good view! We should debias when planning things, but be biased when executing things. There is some spillover between these two mindsets, but the spillover can be reduced with practice

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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