Does personal knowledge about psychology or rationality actually help with large or small personal decision making? Seems like a premise of learning about cognitive biases, LessWrong, etc.
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FWIW, I do think LW rationality is helpful. Prob helps with decisions and at very least I'd bet it is helpful like reading a book that gives you a different perspective on the world is helpful. Mainly just fun to try doing a premortem for why it might not help. /cc
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I have a very long answer to your questions, but if I were to force myself to give a short summary... 1) Knowing about biases is helpful if you're genuinely motivated to notice your own blind spots, but it's not if you're not (cont)
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Think I agree fully here. Part of me does also think that we probably replace the existing blind spots with new (better) blind spots, but that is sorta off topic.
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Kahneman himself seems skeptical that it's helpful.
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Kahneman's skepticism has been shifting in response to evidence, e.g. Phil
@PTetlock's success finding & training superforecasters. -
Kahneman: "I started out as a skeptic, and it’s hard to stay completely skeptical when you see this evidence. It’s very clear that they have identified a population of people who are different from the basic model of progression that many of us, that at least I, have offered."
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Source: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iv … ... he's talking about the superforecasters there
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And tbc, I don't think
@PTetlock's success with the superforecasters gives us much evidence about whether you can improve the judgment of a random person, who doesn't have the motivation to improve (and that's the population most studies have tested) - 1 more reply
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