Thanks @rsnous for recommending
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Couldn’t agree more. This +
@gwern’s review of the Rockefeller biography were totally eye opening -
Nice, I’ll have to check that out I guess
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A pithy expression of the key idea (& already liked by
@gwern):https://twitter.com/asymco/status/474327934686466048 … -
Excellent. Although my impression from reading
@gwern’s writing on this is that he is skeptical that anyone knew the timing ahead of time. Imagery like “moths to a flame” and “ catching a falling knife” sounds very indefinite optimism-y -
(As Gettier might ask, is knowledge justified true belief, or can you know something simply by having a belief which is true?)
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I think about this a lot since I didn't make millions trading
$BTC last year
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Caused me to seriously question the hero worship of these guys and desire to use the same meditation apps they use that are the secret of their success and adopt their morning routines
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Convinced me that randomness of Timing the market + survivorship bias are MUCH more significant than I previously thought. Many parallel universes where Rockefeller wound up bankrupt. Or where Elon musk is working at a bank and building model rockets in his garage
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His review of Rockefeller makes similar points — but interesting see them@applied to an earlier pre silicone valley age
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