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backus's profile
John Backus
John Backus
John Backus
@backus

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John Backus

@backus

Seeking alternative compression. Hopefully wrong on average. Shameless. Started @getcognito and @bloom

San Francisco, CA
Joined August 2012

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    John Backus‏ @backus Sep 15

    Great essay on emerging technology, vision, and timing the market by @gwern (2012)https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/373688680 …

    7:18 PM - 15 Sep 2018
    • 2 Retweets
    • 23 Likes
    • Derek Michael S. Neuren Jesus-Miguel Felipe Sant Ana Dennis Kennedy alsancho Omar Ismail H(brown) Kumar Abhishek
    6 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
      1. John Backus‏ @backus Sep 15

        Thanks @rsnous for recommending

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Sep 16
        Replying to @backus @gwern

        Couldn’t agree more. This + @gwern’s review of the Rockefeller biography were totally eye opening

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. John Backus‏ @backus Sep 16
        Replying to @adamdavidlong @gwern

        Nice, I’ll have to check that out I guess

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ansh Shukla‏ @__anshukla__ Sep 17
        Replying to @backus @gwern

        Ansh Shukla Retweeted Horace Dediu

        A pithy expression of the key idea (& already liked by @gwern):https://twitter.com/asymco/status/474327934686466048 …

        Ansh Shukla added,

        Horace DediuVerified account @asymco
        Those who predict the future we call futurists. Those who know when the future will happen we call billionaires.
        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. John Backus‏ @backus Sep 17
        Replying to @__anshukla__ @gwern

        Excellent. Although my impression from reading @gwern’s writing on this is that he is skeptical that anyone knew the timing ahead of time. Imagery like “moths to a flame” and “ catching a falling knife” sounds very indefinite optimism-y

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
      4. gwern‏ @gwern Sep 17
        Replying to @backus @__anshukla__

        (As Gettier might ask, is knowledge justified true belief, or can you know something simply by having a belief which is true?)

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Ansh Shukla‏ @__anshukla__ Sep 17
        Replying to @gwern @backus

        I think about this a lot since I didn't make millions trading $BTC last year

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Sep 16
        Replying to @backus @gwern

        Caused me to seriously question the hero worship of these guys and desire to use the same meditation apps they use that are the secret of their success and adopt their morning routines

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Sep 16
        Replying to @backus @gwern

        Convinced me that randomness of Timing the market + survivorship bias are MUCH more significant than I previously thought. Many parallel universes where Rockefeller wound up bankrupt. Or where Elon musk is working at a bank and building model rockets in his garage

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Adam David Long‏ @adamdavidlong Sep 16
        Replying to @backus @gwern

        His review of Rockefeller makes similar points — but interesting see them@applied to an earlier pre silicone valley age

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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