Want to elaborate a bit on the analysis of Bernie -> Trump voters that I tweeted out yesterday to respond to various inquiries. 1/nhttps://twitter.com/b_schaffner/status/900123391155482624 …
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For those suggesting this is about trade, note that opposition to TPP is not dramatically different among defectors. 8/npic.twitter.com/Fu0GhL58bU
But there does appear to be a racial component to this, as defectors are much more likely to disagree that whites are advantaged in US 9/npic.twitter.com/zcoHm9APNf
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No time to answer every request for more info, but data are here: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910/DVN/GDF6Z0 … And my code here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/jqd1lm4tfu91hbh/berngen.do?dl=0 … 10/10
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Addendum, if you still want to know more, I'd recommend these two articles: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/?utm_term=.b52ab7688eba …https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/24/16194086/bernie-trump-voters-study …
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Go look at Oklahoma Dem exit poll -- Sanders won primary, in part, by winning conservatives. Dem primary was open, GOP primary was closed.
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interesting. so is it possible they were voting Sanders to weaken Clinton? Rush Limbaugh pushed something like that in 2008
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Why did you report on race bias and not sex bias? Did the survey ask defectors if "males are advantaged?" If not, why the double standard?
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Unfortunately, we didn't have questions like this in the larger CCES survey, but looking at a smaller survey that may tell us something.
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I agree that there is likely to be a sexism component as well.
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I'm sure there is a sexist element too :-)
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yes, unfortunately don't have those questions on the common content and not enough N to do anything meaningful on my module
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87% of Bernie -> Clinton say a woman should always have the right to choose, compared to 50% of Bernie->Trump so I buy it.
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What is meant by "... based on general election behavior"?
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Just whether they voted in the November general election and, if so, who they voted for. (The x-axis).
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Thank you. So then it's an assumption that because they'd voted for Trump, they, by default, 'disagree that white people have advantages'? It wasn't an actual question they were asked?
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No they were asked that question. The Y-axis shows the percent that agreed with it. For example, the first bar means that nearly 50% if Sanders voters who voted for Trump in November agreed with that statement.
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Ah. Thank you for the clarification.
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I'd like to see Clinton -> Clinton voters plotted here as well.
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It's just one big bar. Something like 97% of Clinton primary voters voted for her in general.
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But with respect to the racial and the trade questions? Also interesting, many Sanders->Trump were registered Dems despite not identifying.
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I don't think the ppl in McDowell County WV consider themselves to be "advantaged."https://www.sanders.senate.gov/life-in-mcdowell-county …
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Yeah, no shit they don't see themselves as advantaged. Ppl who are advantaged rarely do. Advantaged ≠ Easy Street...
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...But fact remains a similarly situated PoC encounters significantly more difficulty on the whole than his/her white counterpart.
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Absolutely true. But we are dealing with a highly subjective opinion poll. And fact remains 65% of whites in US don't feel advantaged.
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