Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Political scientist ~ Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies at Tufts ~ CCES Whisperer ~ Slytherin ~

Medford, MA
Vrijeme pridruživanja: lipanj 2015.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    6. sij

    What we can learn from the Obama-Trump voters that Democrats won back in 2018, and what it means for the party’s strategy in 2020. My latest with

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    In doing the "needle," I had to go through the steps of trying to actually formally spell out how you do an Iowa caucus. And I have to tell you, it was way harder than I thought. These rules are complicated.

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  3. prije 5 sati

    this is one of the people you should be following in 2020

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  4. prije 9 sati

    a throwback piece from on what makes caucus participants unique

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  5. prije 16 sati

    very disappointing news for everyone who has been thinking "what this field needs is another old white guy"

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  6. prije 18 sati

    the relationship b/w age and preference for Sanders vs Biden is consistent in all the polls, so it wouldn't be surprising to find that assumptions about the age distribution of caucus participants will matter: so are 17-29 year olds in IA going to caucus like it's 2016 or 2008?

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  7. prije 18 sati

    exit polls often overstate youth turnout, but let's set that aside for the moment. the last NYT/Siena poll (which has Sanders up by 7 over Biden) has 17-29 year olds making up 22.5% of caucus participants. the last CBS/YouGov poll (which shows a tie) has the figure at 15%

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  8. prije 18 sati

    who knows what will happen in Iowa tonight, but I'll be interested to see what the age distribution of caucus participants looks like. in 2016, 17-29 year olds were 18% of Democratic caucus participants, according to the entrance polls. in 2008, it was 22%.

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Happy to have presented my work at the and wanted to share some of the figures from the / 5 wave panel survey.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Spoke to TIME about Iowa, NH, and the upcoming Democratic debates... Other insights from In short, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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  11. 2. velj

    once again, with some great analysis of what might happen in Iowa

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    Running numbers on the effect of sexism on candidate preferences among Dems, in case anyone's still wondering if being a woman hurts Warren.

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  13. 1. velj

    well if we’re counting Emerson than the 4th survey could just be my twitter poll

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  14. 1. velj

    even my birthday wishes end up being political

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij
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  16. 31. sij

    This is spot on. Plus, in the states, 95% of weekend matches are over by noon, meaning minimal interference with other plans.

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  17. 31. sij

    candidate reminds people he was running for president by dropping out of the race

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  18. 31. sij

    this graph, from my new article in POQ with and , is one of my favorites...a lot of interesting lessons in there

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Read on why Democrats don't want Sanders to win but won't attack him. The parallels to the 2016 Republican primary are impressive. Let's review! 1/n

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  20. 30. sij

    So excited to see this in print, especially because this started as ’s senior thesis at

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  21. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    29. sij

    Good to see Newcastle secure themselves an unnamed dressing-room source.

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