Updating a figure from my book: 2022 Current Population Survey data indicates non-Hispanic Whites were overrepresented in the voting population to a greater degree than any previous election. Whites were 67.7% of eligible voters, but 73.3% of voting pop (+5.6pp).

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

May 3

such a fun end of the academic year celebration for the Tufts Public Opinion Lab ... feel really lucky to have had such a smart and interesting group this year. bittersweet to see so many graduating and moving on to exciting new things.

Brendan Hartnett and 5 others

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Shiro Kuriwaki

@shirokuriwaki

May 2

"Vote Choice and Population Size by Geography, Demographics, and Turnout" now on Dataverse: survey/EI estimates of Presidential vote for every [congressional district x race], with population for each [CD x race x sex x age x turnout] cell in the US (1/) doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MA

100

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

May 2

The 2022 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement is now available. I'll have more soon, but here are the CPS-calculated CVAP turnout rates by race: White: 57.6% (-13pp from 2020) Black: 45.1% (-18pp) Hispanic: 37.9% (-16pp) Asian: 40.2% (-20pp) census.gov/data/tables/ti

Quote Tweet

Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

Apr 25

Or May 2

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

May 1

in a new piece on the Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog, Sarah Tata ('23) shows that Democrats and people who have previously sought mental health treatment are more likely to support candidates who advocate for mental health education in schools

tufts-pol.medium.com

Who prioritizes funding for mental health education in schools?

by Sarah Tata (class of 2023)

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Madi Hilly

@MadiHilly

Apr 28

“As a young person in my 20s expecting a child this year, I feel very comfortable with the way we manage nuclear waste, with making more of it and with passing this responsibility onto our kids.” My latest, in

@nytimes

nytimes.com

Opinion | Nuclear Waste Is Misunderstood

We must stop seeing nuclear waste as a dangerous problem and instead recognize it as a safe byproduct of carbon-free power.

421

1,850

creative research, professional posters, and great enthusiasm for their research!

so proud to see what the students in my

@TuftsPoliSci

research methods accomplished this semester 💙

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Ian Shapiro

@IonShapiro

Apr 26

On the CES, we show that racial resentment is a stable, and fairly reliable predictor that someone thinks voter restrictions will, in fact, reduce cheating and increase election integrity. Substantive effect ranges 25%-50% depending on issue.

2022 was the first time that a majority of CES respondents took the survey on a smart phone rather than a computer or tablet. just 10 years ago, nearly everyone took it on a (desktop or laptop) computer.

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 27

in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Jael Strell documents hostile sexism in both parties, & finds that Dems with higher levels of sexism take positions that are closer to Republicans than they are to other Dems

@TuftsUniversity

@TuftsPoliSci

tufts-pol.medium.com

Is this the Illusion of Wokeness? Unmasking Sexism in the 2022 Electorate

by Jael Strell (Class of ‘23)

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Sarah Sobieraj

@sobieraj

Apr 27

A beautiful retirement send off today for

@JeffreyMBerry

. Hard to imagine

@TuftsPoliSci

@TuftsUniversity

without him. Phenomenal scholar, mentor, and person. Thank you, Jeff, for everything!

read image description

ALT

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 26

Touching retirement tribute to

@JeffreyMBerry

today. Only got to spend a few of his 49 years at Tufts as his colleague, but he’s definitely a legend here and in the field as a whole. And a true mensch.

Jonathan Ladd and 3 others

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 25

more awesome content from the Tufts Public Opinion Lab!

Quote Tweet

Brendan Hartnett

@BrendanHartnett

Apr 25

In a new #Python tutorial for @TuftsPoliSci's Public Opinion Lab, I use the #GoogleMaps API to find the driving distance between towns in the Philadelphia suburbs and the nearest recreational marijuana dispensary in New Jersey. #DataScience #AI #ML #RStats tufts-pol.medium.com/tutorial-using

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Jeffrey M. Berry

@JeffreyMBerry

Apr 24

In this Q+A, I explain why Fox's behavior will not change despite the adverse settlement with Dominion now.tufts.edu/2023/04/21/wil #Fox #Dominion #MAGA #TuckerCarlson

now.tufts.edu

Will the Fox News Settlement with Dominion Change the Network?

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 21

this is really good! not surprised given how talented our

@TuftsUniversity

students are. well done

Quote Tweet

I'd love for you to take a listen to the first

#CricketDiplomacy

Hope to upload the rest over the next few days 4/n Listen to "Bowling Not Bullets: Cricket Diplomacy in South Asia

" by War & Peace in South Asia open.spotify.com/episode/1642x3

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

nick davis

@ntdPhD

Apr 21

incredible resource the team at CES has put together. such a cool project and one that has really benefitted social science broadly.

Quote Tweet

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 14

as her final work for the CES project, Katie Gaus helped to create this tool that allows users to search CES common content questionnaires going all the way back to 2008. hope this helps you find what you're looking for! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/ccsearch/

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Shiro Kuriwaki

@shirokuriwaki

Apr 21

This is a frequent CES inquiry. Question text can now be searched with this tool, thanks to Katie!

Quote Tweet

newest CES tool lets you plot participation rates for 8 different political activities across a variety of demographic, economic, & political groupings. piloted it in class yesterday & seeing the large gaps in participation was eye-opening for the students cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/participation/

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Johannes Fischer Stan

@zacharylhertz

Apr 21

I'm excited to announce my paper, "Does a Switch to By-District Elections Reduce Racial Turnout Disparities in Local Elections? The Impact of the California Voting Rights Act" was accepted at

@ElectionLawJrnl

! Current draft here: zacharylhertz.github.io/files/Hertz_20 Short obligatory 🧵:

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Chris Warshaw

@cwarshaw

Apr 20

I'm excited to see "Moderates" in the newest issue of

@apsrjournal

. We show there are many moderate Americans and these moderates are especially important for electoral selection and accountability. cambridge.org/core/journals/

241

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Tufts Political Science

@TuftsPoliSci

Apr 20

Next Thursday, 4/27, swing by the Barnum Hall Lobby at 12:00pm to see incredible student work from Prof.

@b_schaffner

's PS Research Methods Course!! Come help celebrate the diligent research projects of our talented students!

Newest post on the Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog is

@BrendanHartnett

's excellent tutorial on generating MRP estimates in R using the CES data. #RStats

Quote Tweet

I just finished a #RStats tutorial on how to use multilevel regression with post-stratification to estimate state-level public opinion for Tufts Public Opinion Lab @TuftsPoliSci. Check it out! #PoliSciTwitter #dataviz #datascience #MachineLearning tufts-pol.medium.com/estimating-sta

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Hayley Cohen

@HayleyCohen

Apr 14

It’s a beautiful day to learn about primary elections! Come to my #MPSA2023 panel to learn about how campaigns shape the primary electorate. 9:45 in Clark 1!

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 12

The newest piece on the Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog is

@julianlperry

's easy-to-follow tutorial on using the Tidycensus package in R complete with an example combining census data and the CES to study contact theory. #rstats

@TuftsPoliSci

tufts-pol.medium.com

Working with Census Data in R using TidyCensus: An Introduction

By Julian Perry

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

Scott Blatte

@ScottBlatte

Apr 10

What was most interesting was that this drop is due to a huge gap between the parties. Democrats rated a Republican candidate nearly 16 points worse when they had a Trump endorsement while Republicans only rated him 6 points better.

Quote Tweet

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 10

Does Trump's endorsement cost Republicans support? An experiment fielded by @ScottBlatte @dan1ellepiccoli and @zach_um just before the 2022 midterm elections shows that it does, to the tune of a 7-point drop in favorability. tufts-pol.medium.com/should-republi

Show this thread

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Apr 10

This effect is very similar to what others have found when looking at the observational data from the 2022 election, for example

@gelliottmorris

's analysis here: twitter.com/gelliottmorris

This Tweet is unavailable.

Does Trump's endorsement cost Republicans support? An experiment fielded by

@ScottBlatte

@dan1ellepiccoli

and

@zach_um

just before the 2022 midterm elections shows that it does, to the tune of a 7-point drop in favorability.

tufts-pol.medium.com

Should Republicans dump Trump? Our evidence sure says so

By Scott Blatte (Class of 2023), Danielle Piccoli (Class of 2023), and Matt Zachem (Class of 2022)

New analysis from

on the Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog looking at how support for reducing legal immigration has increased during the Biden administration, especially among Democrats. Is Biden to blame?

@TuftsUniversity

@TuftsPoliSci

tufts-pol.medium.com

More Americans support reducing legal immigration now than in 2020: Is Biden to blame?

By Zoe Kava (Class of 2024)

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

CIRCLE

@CivicYouth

Apr 6

We now estimate that, nationally, 23% of young people (ages 18-29) voted in 2022. That's a slight drop from 2018's historic cycle, but a major improvement from previous midterms like 2014, when only 13% of youth cast a ballot. Explore all the data: circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc

Graphic of youth voter turnout in three last midterm elections: 13% in 2014, 28% in 2018, 23% in 2022

read image description

ALT

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

Mar 31

Time for perhaps the most damning stat of all: One in 25 American five-year-olds today will not make it to their 40th birthday. No parent should ever have to bury their child, but on average across the US one set of parents from every kindergarten class most likely will.

104

4,611

9,128

as many of you know, i've been making lots of shiny apps for the Cooperative Election Study over the past few years. i finally took some time to write up a modest shiny app tutorial:

tufts-pol.medium.com

A Shiny App Tutorial using the Cooperative Election Study

Bernard is an awesome colleague and collaborator...this is an awesome opportunity!

Quote Tweet

Bernard L. Fraga

@blfraga

Mar 28

I'm hiring a postdoc to work with me at @EmoryPolisci for the 2023-2024 academic year. The fellow will work on projects related to racial/ethnic inequalities in civic and political participation. More details here: apply.interfolio.com/123109

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

endorse

Why this extremely viral poll result might not be real

It's unlikely that Americans are half as patriotic as they were four years ago. Here's what's happening instead.

311

Brian Schaffner Retweeted

CIRCLE

@CivicYouth

Mar 27

Did young people in states with election laws like automatic and same-day registration have different voting experiences in 2022? Our latest analysis, led by

@Peterdeguz

, suggests that youth in those states were less likely to run out of time to register.

circle.tufts.edu

Voting Laws and Other Access Issues Shaped the Youth Vote in 2022

Lead Author: Peter de Guzman Contributors: Alberto Medina, Kelly Siegel-Stechler

Brian Schaffner

@b_schaffner

Mar 22

here are the 2022 results by party (leaners included as partisans)

obviously not the question wording i would've gone with in 2022, but wanted to keep the wording identical to make comparisons to those earlier surveys stretching all the way back to 1939

found this question that

@RoperCenter

used to ask and wanted to see what responses would look like now so i included it on my 2022 CES module. nearly 1/4th of Americans now think the system is breaking down and that we'll need a new form of govt sooner or later

Show this thread