Over at work I've been doing some #demographics for tax analysis, using 1.7 billion observations, and got some useful results about outcomes from domestic U.S. #migration. The paper is at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3501886 … . Some interesting results:
[1/11—there are many]
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First a definition: I look at within-US moves over 80km: a major life transition uprooting your life—new home, new in-person friends, probably new job, new schools, new everything else. People changing homes under 80k may not be uprooting themselves and are counted as stayers.
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I measure avg income change for movers, and compare to avg income change for stayers who are identical in age category, area cost of living cat, marital status, # of kids, pre-move income cat, housing tenure, area density cat, unemployment benefits, ..., up to 14 dimensions.
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The Econ lit often just assumes that people move to increase their expected income. Two years after the move, this works for a little over half of movers. The rest do worse relative to the counterfactual of staying. So, the Econ lit doesn't have much to say for 45% of movers.
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Ten years out, the near-symmetric distribution of mover-over-stayers outcomes leans more positive, toward about three out of every five movers doing better relative to stayers. But the distribution is not consistent across the population.
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People who move at the same time as leaving school do great relative to stayers. People in communities where post-school moves are common sometimes assume this is the norm for every mover, but it's 6.7% of moves. Other populations don't see nearly the same income gains.
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Retiree movers (again, controlling for AGI, household composition, &c) see noticeably worse post-move incomes relative to stayers. Relative gains decline with age: 25-35 year old movers do well, but past about 45 relative gains (excluding retirees) noticeably fall.
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Relative gains decline with income, with movers making over 100k/year seeing a median post-move income change that's break-even or worse. This could be a simple reversion to the mean story, given movers seeing more volatile income changes than stayers.
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In our search for non-school-leavers who see relative income gains, we're down to under 45s making under 100k/year. Movers in that subgroup see good results—except for single parents, who see roughly break-even median income changes. They are 8% of moves.
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Once you go past finding a higher-paying job, the are a million possible stories for single mothers, elderly movers, and others who don't fit the archetype of the mover. I look forward to seeing where the literature goes next in exploring them.
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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