Metaculus: When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
Median in June 2021: September 2042
January 2022: May 2036
June 2022: June 2033
November 2022: December 2026
metaculus.com/questions/6728
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Is any Metaculus user willing to make a large, real, legal bet on this claim?
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Hi are you still willing to take up this bet? I'm up for $500 for gold medal <2026 (excluding open-source, I don't want to encourage that).
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BookmarksI'm happy to take that bet now then!
I'll request my friends and to vouch for me (that I'm likely to pay if I lose)
Feel free to propose the judge/arbitrator, or to specify the rules more clearly if you'd like to.
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