@Cambridge_Uni Grad - Astrophysics | @join_EF alumni | a tired MedTech founder and entrepreneur | hoping to take a break and do PhD in applying 
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Right, but it seems like it only hit 1% in early November. If so, maybe 8 generations to mid December, which takes you up to 40%. Doesn't seem crazy to me. (That's 0.01*(1.7^8) over 0.01*(1.7^8) + 0.99, to show my working!)
Agreed. Wouldn't any virus need to reach critical mass? Maybe I'm being stupid, but wouldn't a good simplified model be something like t*(dP/dt)^r. t = time, r = transmission rate, P = population with virus. Once dP/dt >0.9, transmission rate causes rapid growth?
sorry I mean dP/dt > 1
I think the key is the ratio in R between the new and old strains - but also not considered is that the more infectious R has a shorter generation time.
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