Andrew ProkopOvjeren akaunt

@awprokop

Senior politics correspondent at covering the impeachment inquiry

Washington, D.C.
Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2010.

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  1. Realignment gains or losses for the top candidates (so far), by voters: Buttigieg +3,373 Sanders +1,132 Warren +1,406 Biden -2,003 Klobuchar -275

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  2. The results so far look to me what I expected from caucus night anecdotes and analysis. Here's state delegate equivalents, Round 1 vote, and final vote

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  5. It's gonna be the biggest, best, and most extraordinary low-key remarks you've ever heard.

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  6. I tend to think it would depend on the margin. If Biden's a close second to Bernie in NH with some distance ahead of Warren/Pete/Klobuchar I think it would be covered as a decent result for him. If he's clustered close to them, not so great (and they'd be less likely to drop out)

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  7. If Biden finishes as we all expect in Iowa, would a second place finish for Biden in NH be covered as a "win" for him? Finishing second to a New England senator in NH is why Bill Clinton dubbed himself "the Comeback Kid" in 1992 and "saved his campaign."

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  8. Yup. Caucuses are a messy process and there are now more opportunities for that messiness to be noticed

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  9. Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows.

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  10. Context for how Bloomberg is already outspending the rest of the field combined (including Tom Steyer) on ads. Now he's doubling that.

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  11. A million ads isn't cool. You know what's cool? A billion ads.

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  12. Having been to a bunch of DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meetings last year, my impression was that their patience with the Iowa caucuses was already growing thin.

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  13. This could be premature, but so far it doesn't seem like any candidate is going to drop out based on the Iowa results. Which in itself is unusual.

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  14. Has anyone claimed "Iowapocalypse Now"? If not, it's mine, must credit, etc.

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  15. Buttigieg's entire strategy hinged on an Iowa bounce. So he's decided to assert one and cross his fingers the results confirm him. (Because otherwise he's toast.) Biden underperformed, so he's trying to discredit the results. (Not endorsing either of these approaches!)

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  16. Would not be strategically smart for Bernie to discredit the IA results, since he seems to expect to win or at least do well, and he's well-positioned in NH already.

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  17. Remember a few months ago when Iowa Democrats were *also* going to create and hold new "virtual caucuses" until the DNC spiked the idea? I'm sure that would've gone great...

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  18. (Many people who have previously used new apps specifically created for big events can probably understand why.)

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  19. Saw a claim that nobody "predicted" this. Not aware of anyone predicting this much of a disaster. But among those following this, "They're using a new phone app to report results, uh oh, could be a long night," was a common take.

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  20. Lyrics include “Shadow, take me down” and (repeated) “for the last time”

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