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awgaffney's profile
Adam W Gaffney
Adam W Gaffney
Adam W Gaffney
Verified account
@awgaffney

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Adam W GaffneyVerified account

@awgaffney

Critical care doctor @challiance, assistant professor @HarvardMed, healthcare researcher, past president @PNHP, author of "To Heal Humankind", tweets my own.

Boston, MA
dradamgaffney.com
Joined January 2012

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    1. Adam W Gaffney‏Verified account @awgaffney 20 Feb 2021

      Every claim thus far that such and such a population has “reached herd immunity” is incorrect. That’s why we keep seeing surge after surge. What is true is that partial population immunity changes the threshold at which behavioral change produces a plummet in cases ....

      18 replies 176 retweets 764 likes
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      Adam W Gaffney‏Verified account @awgaffney 20 Feb 2021

      ... even if, at the same time, a substantial portion of the population remains susceptible. Which means policy implications are limited. An overly simplified, binary notion of “herd immunity” has been an unfortunate, misleading conceptual anchor throughout this pandemic.

      4:38 PM - 20 Feb 2021
      • 28 Retweets
      • 203 Likes
      • Javier Tobio™️ Dr. Unburnt Poorman dumplings THEE Edgeoforever 🖖 🐝 Karin Kirk Pedro Burgos Shelley DeVost Huw Sayer #Writer Barry Tennison
      4 replies 28 retweets 203 likes
        1. Adam W Gaffney‏Verified account @awgaffney 20 Feb 2021

          An odd political side effect of Trumpian “herd immunity” boosterism was some degree of denialism that immune effects contributed in any way to plunges in cases —the ironic thing is that admitting the latter has little policy implications. Either way we want to squash & vaccinate.

          9 replies 14 retweets 101 likes
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        1. Michael Pollak‏ @mdpollak 20 Feb 2021
          Replying to @awgaffney

          Also half immune and half not is the perfect system for evolving variants that best the vaccine-induced defenses

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 20 Feb 2021
          Replying to @awgaffney

          The term herd immunity seems to have different meanings in different contexts & based on different people’s understanding. If you assume it implies a virus will be eliminated from a population (like measles) then HI will likely never be reached for COVID.

          1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
        3. Victoria Fox‏ @drvictoriafox 20 Feb 2021
          Replying to @drvictoriafox @awgaffney

          COVID is is expected to become endemic causing infections every flu season like endemic CoV. At some point due to immunity, the numbers infected will be lower as will the burden of morbidity/mortality bc even though reinfections can occur they are typically mild/asymptomatic.

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. george davey smith‏ @mendel_random 21 Feb 2021
          Replying to @awgaffney

          george davey smith Retweeted george davey smith

          Absolutely - and the originators of the concept wouldn’t recognise this binary categorisationhttps://twitter.com/mendel_random/status/1326530787961954304 …

          george davey smith added,

          george davey smith @mendel_random
          Why can't we talk about herd immunity? One answer to @mlipsitch question is because of its reduction to a “herd immunity threshold”. Like individual level susceptibility to infection it is a relative concept, as Topley - who first formalized the concept - said in 1935. https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1326025169308102659 … pic.twitter.com/s0w0Fc8Q7t
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