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avibryant's profile
Avi Bryant
Avi Bryant
Avi Bryant
@avibryant

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Avi Bryant

@avibryant

Happiest when working on Random Forests from random beaches.

Galiano Island
avibryant.com
Joined November 2006

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    1. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant

      That kind of makes intuitive sense since at 100 dice it takes expected 1 trial to lose, and at 1 die it takes 100, which sort of hints to at least an O(N^2) solution.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @DjangoWexler

      Wait, I screwed my simulation up, but your tweet here's a good way to think about it. It's the sum for i=1 to N of N/i.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant

      Urgh am I going to have to simulate this myself....

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @DjangoWexler

      My Scala simulation code (fixed to work, I think), fwiwhttps://gist.github.com/avi-stripe/6eb925629e1ae8352552242ef7cf3ede …

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant

      Unless my sim is very wrong it's not close to N^2 actually. Results are in the 400-700 range.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @DjangoWexler

      Yes, agreed, sorry - N^2 was from a dumb mistake I made. The results I get currently are ~14 for d6 (which is close to 6/6+6/5+6/4+6/3+6/2+6/1), 28 for d10, 519 for d100, 1176 for d200.

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant @DjangoWexler

      All of which match this.pic.twitter.com/dyyEZ6LIQW

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant

      Ok. So Wolfram Alpha says that series for N = 75 is roughly 367.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
      Replying to @DjangoWexler @avibryant

      Simulation says 365, 366 -- seems to work! WHY it works I have no idea.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    10. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @DjangoWexler

      Go back to your tweet about intuition. It takes on average 1 roll to go from 100 dice to 99. Then it takes on average 100/99 rolls to go down to 99 dice. Then it takes on average 100/98 rolls to go down to 97 dice. Then it takes...

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Apr 16
      Replying to @avibryant @DjangoWexler

      I guess the possibility of losing multiple dice in one roll just kinda comes out in the wash.

      6:51 PM - 16 Apr 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Ray Radlein
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Django Wexler‏ @DjangoWexler Apr 16
          Replying to @avibryant

          Yeah, that makes sense, since you have equal probability of undershooting.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. d‏ @dani_xman Apr 16
          Replying to @DjangoWexler @avibryant

          I mean it's no surprise to me that I'm a nerd but I'm enjoying this conversation far too much...

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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