B could have been clearer saying "That's because you have side effects from your flu shot" followed by "Then it's because you have the flu".
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That was bothering me too. But I'm ok with "then you must have been exposed to the flu, and because you didn't get a shot you're feeling it"
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Replying to @avibryant @JorgeO
Yeah there's definitely some language shorthand going on here. Minimal examples I'm trying to construct don't have quite the same effect
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A: Someone was hit by a trolley B: That's because you pulled the lever A: I didn't pull the lever B: Then it's bc you didn't pull the lever
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Replying to @jliszka @avibryant
A: The police showed up at my house. B: That's because you set your home alarm [and it had a false positive that called the police].
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A: I didn't set my home alarm. B: Then it's because you didn't set it [and burglars weren't scared away so you're filing a police report].
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Replying to @JorgeO @avibryant
A: I'm broke B: That's because you play the lottery A: I don't play the lottery B: That's why you're broke
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Replying to @jliszka @avibryant


Also works with B unchanged and A substituting "rich" instead of "broke".
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The key is that when you learn P(flu-shot) = 0, having observed sorethroat, you have to update your prior on P(exposed-to-flu) to very high,
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And that update switches the relative positions of P(sore-throat|flu-shot) and P(sore-throat|~flu-shot).
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P(S|F,X) > P(S|~F,X) P(S|F,~X) > P(S|~F,~X) P(F|S) > P(X|S) Observe S: infer F, ~X "S because F" Then observe ~F: infer X "S because ~F"
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this is one of my favorite sufjan songs
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