$20 for the first person who can summarize the conditional probability error in this blog post in < 140 characters. http://daltoncaldwell.com/appnet-is-not-vaporware …
@josh_wills had the same thought. P(40% | Fail) being low doesn't help you much with P(Success | 40%).
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@avibryant especially when you condition on the amount of money they were raising: only 213 successful projects between 100k and 1m.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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