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avibryant's profile
Avi Bryant
Avi Bryant
Avi Bryant
@avibryant

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Avi Bryant

@avibryant

Happiest when working on Random Forests from random beaches.

Galiano Island
avibryant.com
Joined November 2006

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    1. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9

      Steven Klaiber Noble Retweeted Steven Klaiber Noble

      This is my understanding of Single Transferable Vote vs Proportional Representation vs First Past The Post Tell me where this is wronghttps://twitter.com/snoble/status/1060964095686393856 …

      Steven Klaiber Noble added,

      Steven Klaiber Noble @snoble
      Replying to @snoble @chimeracoder
      So most succinctly: STV favours the influence of statist parties, PR favours the influence of 3rd parties, FPTP is in the middle (but has the hardest to defend outcomes)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Nov 9
      Replying to @snoble

      Yeah, that's interesting. STV presumably favors punctuated equilibrium, where the well-established parties keep all the seats until suddenly a 3rd party builds enough of a voting base to take control, without it being certain pre-election that this can happen.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9
      Replying to @avibryant

      I think this is right. It's like 3rd parties in Canada vs America. In Canada 3rd parties are close enough to that equilibrium point, they could gain influence in STV. In America the spoiling power influence of Green and Libertarian parties would disappear with STV

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Nov 9
      Replying to @snoble

      Also, STV is considerably more likely than FPTP to create situations like the current BC parliament, because minority parties get seats when any given district has local majority support for a 3rd party, even when there's no such global support.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9
      Replying to @avibryant

      I'm confused. Doesn't FPTP give seats to local majorities? Or are you referring to sub-riding local and where there are multiple seats per riding?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Nov 9
      Replying to @snoble

      You can model my riding of Gulf Islands/Saanich as having roughly 50% support for each of the Liberals, the NDP, and the Greens, with NDP/Green significantly overlapping. In FPTP it was until recently considered risky to vote for Green because that might get the Liberal in.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Nov 9
      Replying to @avibryant @snoble

      In the last election that actually tipped over and we voted in the Green MLA. But I predict that would have happened sooner if people could rank Green #1 and feel safe that NDP is #2.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Avi Bryant‏ @avibryant Nov 9
      Replying to @avibryant @snoble

      Actually that same dynamic played out at the federal level too (with Elizabeth May as our MP now).

      12:25 PM - 9 Nov 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9
          Replying to @avibryant

          I mean, we had a federal Conservative majority basically as a result of "the NDP became more popular in Quebec" and then a Liberal one when "the NDP became less popular on Quebec"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9
          Replying to @snoble @avibryant

          No question that STV carries the most signal. I wonder how the dynamics change if you can get that signal from outside the election system. Like with really good polling Of course that raises the question of "what's wrong with STV?"

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Parveen Kaler‏ @kaler Nov 9
          Replying to @snoble @avibryant

          The real question is “what’s the common wrong with all of these voting systems?” The party is able to whip members to tow the party line and vote against the interests of their constituents. The fundamental problem is parties and whipping.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        5. Steven Klaiber Noble‏ @snoble Nov 9
          Replying to @kaler @avibryant

          No question parties are corrupt. at least they have brand value to protect which makes them offer some policing of members I'd worry a lot about an elected politician whose survival is based entirely on getting enough community votes. And might not care that much about survival

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation

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