Sweater-wearing decisions are hard. My phone can tell me what temperature it is OUTSIDE but the more relevant information is what temperature the AC is set to wherever I'm going. Google should get on that.
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I wear a lot of sweaters due to game theory: Wear sweater: Cold restaurant (0) or Warm restaurant, take sweater off and carry (-1) Don't wear sweater: cold restaurant, freeze (-5), warm restaurant (0)
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Wearing a sweater is not a fully dominant strategy, but optimal if P(cold) > .2 . Which in my data, it is.
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Replying to @DjangoWexler
You also have to factor in that P(cold | sweater) > P(cold | ~sweater) because of malevolent deities who want to punish you for being unprepared.
12:21 PM - 20 Jul 2018
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