Audra4NM

This is far more serious than any of us realized! As a developer there are 3 types of developers: incompetent, legitimate, and illegitimate. The story below reaks of illegitimate.https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1325332416676945921 …

It really takes a sick kind of person to spend 4 years calling you a traitor and a racist and worse and then say they'll stop and accept you if you just agree to everything they want This is toxic relationship stuff

One postscript that people have asked about - why Milwaukee? Why not analyze everywhere else too? I picked Milwaukee after initial strange reports of ballots being found at 4am. But it took about 48 hours of work and writing to put together just this much.

A final question to ponder. What should our null hypothesis be? When we say “there’s no evidence of fraud”, we’re claiming “no fraud” as the null hypothesis. To me, the system of vote counting is so broken that this is very difficult to justify. https://twitter.com/shylockh/status/1324190811043581952?s=20 … (47/N)

Races swung more towards Dems exactly where the Dems were down on Wednesday early morning. To explain this with mail-in ballots needs a very complicated story. To explain it with fraud needs a very simple story – you commit fraud more where the fraud matters more. (45/N)

You need something complicated to explain it. Dem voters vote less for Dem candidates if they know they’re know are going to win anyway, AND this instinct is somehow larger in Dem mail-in voters than Dem in-person voters, AND Dems vote more by mail overall. (43/N)

More ballots come in Democratic, they each vote for every Democrat, so all Democrats increase in the same percentage terms. This isn’t what we find. In the data, within a ward, the important races go up more than the unimportant races. (40/N)

This is exactly what we’d predict if votes before look like votes after, which for R vs M, they do. This is also inconsistent with the driver being something Trump did, like telling all his supporters to vote in-person. (26/N)

So, this proves incontrovertibly that *something* about the count skews crazily towards the Democrats after 2am Wednesday. But it doesn’t prove what it is. Maybe they counted different types of ballots or something, but only starting at 4am. (16/N)