Mini-tweetstorm before I have to run to the airport to catch my plane to Vegas. Subject: last night's unbelievable five-car pileup in the moderate lane.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/12/theories-that-collapsed-new-hampshire/ …
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So they decided the better path was to keep him, assume he'd lose, and rebuild the party after his followers learned their lesson. Which, umm, yeah.
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Only now the problem is bigger, because now the price of losing isn't some opposition standard-bearer you'll hate but live with; it's four more years of Trump. And the price of winning is seeing your party reborn in Bernie's image. Either way, forcing him out looks a bad option.
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Shorter: I don't think there's much chance that party elites are going to overrule voters if Bernie has a decent plurality, which is what he currently looks headed for.
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To which a follower responds "sounds like the democratic party should get behind sanders and win the general then" which, yes, but there's a hitch: Bernie's M4A will run into a lot of resistance from unions and senior citizens. Just try winning PA, MI, WI or OH without 'em
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He's also apt to scare suburban moderates who don't want to pay higher taxes in order to lose their employer-sponsored health insurance. Those folks were the Democratic victory margin in 2018's midterm sweep.
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Just not clear he makes up enough ground in the white working class to run that table. The WWC *likes* Trump. Supporters camped out for a day and a half here in Phoenix to see him last night.
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The four moderates are re-enacting the Kasich strategy of 2016, throwing a Hail Mary towards a brokered convention and hoping they'll be the one with the most moderate votes, even if fewer than Bernie, if they can only outwait them.
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Problem: Warren has now realized that she will never. ever. pick up enough Bernie voters, and is now desperately scrambling to get into the moderate lane. The more people do this, the more the non-Bernie vote fragments, and the harder it will be to force a moderate on the ticket.
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Bigger problem: With California now on the Super Tuesday ballot, waiting doesn't get you as much as it once did; you have fewer opportunities to pick up a lot of delegates late.
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Biggest problem: one of the five is a billionaire who cannot be forced from the race until he's good and ready to leave. Candidates don't fold because they've rationally assessed their chances; they fold because they run out of money.
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Which leads me to ask: what the heck did all the non-Bernie candidates think they'd gain by climbing all over Bloomberg? Were they trying to scare off his donor?
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Even if the candidates who were whaling on Bloomberg had managed to slightly improve their own profiles (which none of them did, except Warren), the boost would be marginal, and the cost would be big.
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Every minute the Democrats spent ganging up on Bloomberg was a minute they didn't use to knock out someone who might help them by actually leaving the race when their donor base lost interest.
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Again, this might seem individually rational if you think they're jockeying for position at a brokered convention. But it's collective madness, especially when you consider the low odds that anyone but Bernie walks out of a brokered convention with the nomination.
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This collective action problem in the moderate lane looks more and more likely to hand Sanders the nomination unless some bright Democratic game theorist finds a solution, fast.
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And that's all she wrote, for now. As always, there's a bunch of stuff in the column I didn't touch on here, so please read it:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/20/hey-democrats-youre-attacking-wrong-candidate/ …
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End of conversation
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