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asymmetricinfo's profile
Megan McArdle
Megan McArdle
Megan McArdle
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@asymmetricinfo

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Megan McArdleVerified account

@asymmetricinfo

Columnist at the Washington Post. Opinions my own. Email me: Megan.McArdle -at- http://washpost.com  Buy my book, The Up Side of Down http://amzn.to/1a3i2tK 

Washington, DC
Joined September 2008

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    Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

    Megan McArdle Retweeted David French

    Unfortunately, from a policy perspective, the relevant question isn't "how many mass shooters displayed red flags" but "what percentage of the people who display red flags become mass shooters". I suspect the answer to the latter is "very, very low".https://twitter.com/DavidAFrench/status/1159569983413923858 …

    Megan McArdle added,

    David FrenchVerified account @DavidAFrench
    Think red flags are rare in mass shooting cases? Nope. Here's a stat from a study of mass attacks in 2018: "In 93% of the incidents, the authorities found that the suspects had a history of threats or other troubling communications. " 93 percent. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/before-mass-shootings-the-red-flags-fly/ …
    2:01 PM - 8 Aug 2019
    • 249 Retweets
    • 1,017 Likes
    • Keller Scholl Andres Hernandez Peter Ford EnoRiverBend FaithPhotosFiction Mdu GenX Politics Michelle Barrineau Violetta Zaharova
    60 replies 249 retweets 1,017 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

        This is a very common mistake when talking about policy--you note that a lot of people who do X or Y have some characteristic, and then say "We should address that characteristic with our policy!"

        5 replies 12 retweets 119 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

        To offer an extreme example, say we discover that 98% of bank robbers have driver's licenses. Who cares? We will not get very far looking for bank robbers, or potential bank robbers, by scrutinizing licensed drivers

        5 replies 19 retweets 139 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

        Of course, "red flags" are less extreme, but lots of people nurture violent fantasies, a bitter hatred of the opposite sex or some other group they imagine wronged them, without doing so much as spitting on the sidewalk in their direction.

        5 replies 6 retweets 73 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

        I'm not saying that's great and fine, but if most of them don't do anything, what's your policy response?

        9 replies 5 retweets 70 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Megan McArdle‏Verified account @asymmetricinfo 8 Aug 2019

        BTW, this is also why the Finkelstein et al study of medical bankruptcy is superior to Elizabeth Warren's work on the subject. It's much more useful to know how much a medical event raises your probability of declaring bankruptcy than what % of bankrupts had some medical bills.

        7 replies 15 retweets 164 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. wiredog‏ @KitCase3 8 Aug 2019
        Replying to @asymmetricinfo

        This is America, where it’s easier to register and track people than guns.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. pastyskin mcirishman‏ @thepubprobably 8 Aug 2019
        Replying to @asymmetricinfo

        when the result of a false positive is someone doesn't get to have a gun for a time and even one true positive stops a mass shooting, i'm on board

        4 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. Deepish Thinker  🇳🇿 🇮🇪 🇺🇸‏ @DeepishThinker 8 Aug 2019
        Replying to @thepubprobably @asymmetricinfo

        I suspect that this is a fairly common sentiment. However, before we charge down this particular road it might be good to ask, are we ok with people losing their 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th amendment rights, "for a time" because the government has deemed them dangerous?

        1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
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      2. Jeffrey Churchill‏ @chilljat 8 Aug 2019

        He should have been referred to a school counselor and that person could have talked to him and maybe referred him out. Teachers don’t hear everything, but they should be mandated reporters for first level counseling referrals.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. End of conversation

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