This is a very common mistake when talking about policy--you note that a lot of people who do X or Y have some characteristic, and then say "We should address that characteristic with our policy!"
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To offer an extreme example, say we discover that 98% of bank robbers have driver's licenses. Who cares? We will not get very far looking for bank robbers, or potential bank robbers, by scrutinizing licensed drivers
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Of course, "red flags" are less extreme, but lots of people nurture violent fantasies, a bitter hatred of the opposite sex or some other group they imagine wronged them, without doing so much as spitting on the sidewalk in their direction.
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I'm not saying that's great and fine, but if most of them don't do anything, what's your policy response?
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BTW, this is also why the Finkelstein et al study of medical bankruptcy is superior to Elizabeth Warren's work on the subject. It's much more useful to know how much a medical event raises your probability of declaring bankruptcy than what % of bankrupts had some medical bills.
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This is America, where it’s easier to register and track people than guns.
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when the result of a false positive is someone doesn't get to have a gun for a time and even one true positive stops a mass shooting, i'm on board
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I suspect that this is a fairly common sentiment. However, before we charge down this particular road it might be good to ask, are we ok with people losing their 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th amendment rights, "for a time" because the government has deemed them dangerous?
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He should have been referred to a school counselor and that person could have talked to him and maybe referred him out. Teachers don’t hear everything, but they should be mandated reporters for first level counseling referrals.
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