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Do you think they will untether Watch from iOS and bring it to other platforms? I think Watch on other platforms (or stand alone) is key to Apple services growth.

Apple Watch will be an iPhone-attached device or an standalone device.

I think other companies would love to have a stand alone business as big as the  watch

It the biggest watch brand by revenue in the world.

Sorry if I’m being stupid, but are you implying that only 3 to 6 million users out of 46m units sold upgraded?

No, devices in use include those handed down to others. In my family every Apple watch is still in use even though generations are upgraded. This is true for all other Apple devices.

What is the key driver of increases?

All technologies diffuse in a S-curve through a process of imitation. They are driven by people observing other people using the product and deciding that it works and they can hire it to do something. See Everett Rogers ’62 “Diffusion of Innovations”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations …