Putin quashed the 2011-13 protests by dropping the hammer on key activists. But demographics mean he's got to quell a new gen every few yrs
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Putin prolly wouldn't mind throwing Medvedev under the bus at some point. He can't coopt Navalny, but I don't think he fears him, either.
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Besides the main anti-corruption figurehead activist in Russia, Navalny's also a nationalist. That likely serves to cushion him on some lvl.
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Putin would prolly love to pull a Mugabe, but knows he won't be around forever. It'd be like him to groom a solid adversary for succession.
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That all's just my layman gut feeling from watching Russian politics since Brezhnev. I'm certainly no Kremlinologist, grain of salt & all.
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It's pretty scary/ugly at times (esp. online), endlessly convoluted & largely inscrutable from afar, but always fascinating in pivotal times
End of conversation
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