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ashishkjha's profile
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
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@ashishkjha

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Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPHVerified account

@ashishkjha

Physician, researcher, advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion Views here surely my own Professor, Dean @Brown_SPH

Providence, RI
brown.edu/academics/publ…
Joined May 2009

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    Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

    Its been nearly 3 weeks since Labor Day We were all worried about surge after holiday Has it happened? Actually, yes Data here pretty clear First, here’s a graph of the number of new daily cases (y-axis) over past month 7-day moving averages What does this mean? Threadpic.twitter.com/G2H0n6Kky1

    8:08 PM - 26 Sep 2020
    • 1,883 Retweets
    • 3,003 Likes
    • KatPharm Nathaniel Koloc The Marquis DeBarge Ondriah Luis🥀 Connie Tiano SunjayJK✾DIVERSITY Tom Pain 2d Annie Wachtel
    144 replies 1,883 retweets 3,003 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Cases slowly declining as we entered September Labor Day weekend 9/5-7 If holiday set off new infections...you’d expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12) That’s exactly what we see in graph So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day Today, at 44K/day Up 30% 2/7

        7 replies 157 retweets 499 likes
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      3. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        39 states have more cases today than just 2 weeks ago 31 states have higher % of tests returning positive And 16 states have % test positive > 10% That’s not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections But patterns vary across states. So let’s dive in 3/7

        6 replies 153 retweets 541 likes
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      4. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Lets start with 15 states with highest per capita new cases ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d) Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc But its not just small states In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states How are things going here? Not great 4/8

        5 replies 91 retweets 336 likes
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      5. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Across these 15 states: 1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot. 2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6% 3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up But there’s another problem – rest of the country is not doing so hot either 5/7

        4 replies 99 retweets 342 likes
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      6. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Across other 35 states: Cases up about 11% % of tests positive, hospitalizations flat So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse And, of course Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY) Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks 6/8

        5 replies 77 retweets 310 likes
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      7. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        And with colder weather, outdoor activity, which is so much safer, will get harder This is why @IHME_UW and others predicting a bad fall/winter But I'm a bit more optimistic We can avoid the @IHME_UW scenario of 400K dead by January What makes me more optimistic? 7/9

        4 replies 75 retweets 322 likes
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      8. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        A bunch of things. More testing finally coming (pretty sure) Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths 8/9

        5 replies 60 retweets 390 likes
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      9. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Bottom line We have a long way to go in this pandemic Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low Not in a good spot but we can control this We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available 9/10

        3 replies 104 retweets 501 likes
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      10. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 26 Sep 2020

        Here's our charge Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars) When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask! And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected. We can do this Fin

        54 replies 273 retweets 1,116 likes
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      11. End of conversation
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