Cases slowly declining as we entered September Labor Day weekend 9/5-7 If holiday set off new infections...you’d expect to see cases rising 5 to 7 days later (around 9/12) That’s exactly what we see in graph So 2 weeks ago, we were at 34K/day Today, at 44K/day Up 30% 2/7
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39 states have more cases today than just 2 weeks ago 31 states have higher % of tests returning positive And 16 states have % test positive > 10% That’s not great. Those 16 states are missing a lot of infections But patterns vary across states. So let’s dive in 3/7
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Lets start with 15 states with highest per capita new cases ND #1 at 52 new cases /100K/d) Others include SD, WI, UT, OK, IA, AR, MO, etc But its not just small states In fact, about 25% of America lives in these 15 states How are things going here? Not great 4/8
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Across these 15 states: 1. New infections are up 67% in last two weeks. That a lot. 2. Their collective % of test positives is 11.6% 3. Their hospitalizations are starting to creep up But there’s another problem – rest of the country is not doing so hot either 5/7
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Across other 35 states: Cases up about 11% % of tests positive, hospitalizations flat So, almost no one getting better but many getting worse And, of course Some states further easing restrictions (FL, IN, even NY) Colleges, many businesses back, some seeing outbreaks 6/8
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A bunch of things. More testing finally coming (pretty sure) Some policymakers are being data driven, limiting indoor gatherings And of course, as infections rise, folks will pull back on their own Plus -- therapies keep getting better. This allows us lower deaths 8/9
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Bottom line We have a long way to go in this pandemic Must focus on keeping infections, hospitalizations, and deaths low Not in a good spot but we can control this We can get through next 7-9 months until we hopefully have safe, effective vaccines widely available 9/10
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Here's our charge Avoid indoors when possible (push leaders to limit dining, bars) When indoors are super important (schools), improve ventilation: open windows, air exchange. And wear a mask! And democratize testing for everyone, not just well-connected. We can do this Fin
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