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ashishkjha's profile
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH
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@ashishkjha

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Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPHVerified account

@ashishkjha

Physician, researcher, advocate for the notion that an ounce of data is worth a thousand pounds of opinion Views here surely my own Professor, Dean @Brown_SPH

Providence, RI
brown.edu/academics/publ…
Joined May 2009

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    Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

    Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH Retweeted CHEPS

    I don't buy Sturgis study below. Why? Really big effect. Makes me skeptical One rule of thumb I teach is: if effect size of a social phenomenon using noisy data is very large -- be wary So was Sturgis harmless? No. But I doubt it caused 250,000 cases. Threadhttps://twitter.com/SDSUCHEPS/status/1302480031638147074 …

    Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH added,

    CHEPS @SDSUCHEPS
    New @SDSUCHEPS paper by Dhaval Dave @FriedsonAndrew @Drew_McNichols & Joe Sabia ("Contagion Externality of Super-spreader") finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B See: https://bit.ly/320amqX  pic.twitter.com/jdLlLkwRek
    8:31 PM - 8 Sep 2020
    • 510 Retweets
    • 1,409 Likes
    • 𝗕𝗜𝗟𝗟 𝗦𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗧 Aaron Mauck Darren Dahly, PhD Hugh McLaurin Stannie Holt Adriel Nittala Jacob Molloy Karen Bleznak | ashley c. dinney | 🏴‍☠️
    112 replies 510 retweets 1,409 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH Retweeted Rex Douglass (Computational Social Scientist/PhD)

        First, there are a bunch of methodologic issues and two different threads do nice job sorting them out One by @AssumeNormality https://twitter.com/AssumeNormality/status/1303427792693059587?s=20 … Second by @RexDouglass https://twitter.com/RexDouglass/status/1303379252742479872 … But there's another reason beyond these to be skeptical 2/6

        Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH added,

        Rex Douglass (Computational Social Scientist/PhD) @RexDouglass
        Today I'll be live tweet-reviewing my: 20th COVID-19 paper 6th paper purporting to be able to show mass-events do/don't spread COVID 3rd Dave et al. paper already this quarter using the same bad research design It's starting to feel like if Sisyphus ran a methods seminar https://twitter.com/SDSUCHEPS/status/1302480031638147074 …
        Show this thread
        2 replies 23 retweets 102 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        It doesn't pass the sniff test Yes it was a crazy large rally Yes there was a ton of irresponsible behavior (no mask, no distancing, lots of bars in evening) I would not be surprised if it set of big outbreaks -- hundreds of cases, may be thousands But 250K?? 3/7

        9 replies 19 retweets 158 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        One way to is to look at where the ralliers came from -- 10% from the Dakotas, 90% from elsewhere. So let's look at the Dakotas -- actually, here, the story is pretty good. It appears that in the days following the end of the rally, large spikes in cases in the Dakotas. 4/7

        2 replies 12 retweets 93 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        So that checks out Across Dakotas, likely additional 1K to 2K cases total since rally Not huge -- but in Dakotas (small populations), you see it What about other 90% of Ralliers? Where are they from? Authors identify them coming from big counties in AZ, CO, CA, NV, etc 5/7

        7 replies 12 retweets 93 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        But when you look at those counties, no big (or even small) uptick in cases in days/weeks following Sturgis Not in Maricopa, SD, LA, Denver or Las Vegas If none of the big counties saw a spike, 250K additional cases seems implausible. 6/7

        7 replies 18 retweets 120 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        If Sturgis really was 20% of all cases in US since rally, we should see counties where people went back to light up. They don't These counties rising pre-rally and flatten post rally (mostly). Synthetic counties may be not good controls But here's the lesson 7/8

        2 replies 22 retweets 101 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        If Sturgis is responsible for 20% of cases in the past month, we should be able to see it in the raw data. Because that's a massive effect. Massive. But we don't If I'm missing it or am wrong, would love to know how 8/9

        6 replies 27 retweets 160 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH‏Verified account @ashishkjha 8 Sep 2020

        Final thoughts: 1. Sturgis rally was wholly irresponsible. 500K folks gathered with little respect for COVID 2. LIkely super spreader event, causing thousands of cases, some deaths 3. But think unlikely to be responsible for 260k cases (20% of all US cases)in short order Fin

        30 replies 60 retweets 372 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Tom Harrison‏ @tomharrisonjr 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @ashishkjha

        Yeah, I read this study too, and had the same reaction. I am not an epidemiologist, but I studied economics, and do statistics for my work, and know that extrapolations like this tend to fail on the last multiplication. Unless there's a known superspreader...

        1 reply 1 retweet 30 likes
      3. Bob Morris, MD, PhD‏ @rdmorris 8 Sep 2020
        Replying to @tomharrisonjr @ashishkjha

        ten days of parties with 450,000 people. I am an epidemiologist and I 100% guarantee multiple super-spreader events given what we know about this virus.

        4 replies 8 retweets 65 likes
      4. Show replies

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