That doesn't even do anything, if your ten-person gathering overlaps with other people's ten-person gatherings the virus moves around just as quickly We've been over this, this only even theoretically works if it's a PERMANENT "bubble" of interacting with the SAME peoplehttps://twitter.com/angryasianman/status/1326672519529594880 …
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Replying to @arthur_affect
Not just as quickly. If everyone reduces the number of people with whom they have contact that risks exposure by just 50% versus baseline the number of new infections per infected person. Even if that doesn’t push R0 below 1, it still slows the rate of growth
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Replying to @lawnerdbarak
Yeah but my sense of what's actually going to happen is the decrease in big parties (which are harder to organize anyway) will just be compensated for by an increased frequency of smaller parties
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Replying to @arthur_affect @lawnerdbarak
Like how the effect of a curfew on restaurants and bars, unless it's an extremely harsh curfew, just makes restaurants and bars more crowded and perversely increases spread
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Replying to @arthur_affect @lawnerdbarak
If you could wave a magic wand and turn every existing huge party into a small ten-people-or-less party, and everything else stayed the same, then yeah, that's incremental progress It's not how people work, though
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Replying to @arthur_affect @lawnerdbarak
In fact I'm dead certain that when you officially announce you're allowed to have small parties with ten people or less, a lot of people will take that as permission to hold a party who *wouldn't have had a party at all* if you'd said nothing
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Replying to @arthur_affect @lawnerdbarak
Maybe the problem is simply that you have a virus that spreads in an activity that people like, and in fact *need.* Not parties, but social, in-real-life interaction. The attempts to tamp that down seem as futile as telling people not to drink water to stop cholera.
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Replying to @Mad_Science_Guy @lawnerdbarak
I mean, yes That's what's frustrating, in the same way as we all knew HIV or antibiotic-resistant chlamydia could disappear really fast if people just didn't fuck But that just isn't going to happen, despite whole huge religions screaming at people not to fuck every Sunday
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And yes just talking to people turns out to be even more of a primal need than fucking Even so -- the virus doesn't care about what we need and it's happy to take advantage of our basic nature to kill us
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Which is why it's the weighing of short and long term harm that's at issue here This could've been solved with quick, harsh action early on when the virus started and while it would've sucked by now it would be fading into memory Now it's going to go on forever
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