The whole story of the Trump administration has been black swan shit Everyone's so focused on "He probably won't win, don't panic, be realistic about the chances" and not "Okay but IF he DOES win, what are you going to DO ABOUT IT"
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Trump throwing out the pandemic response handbook because, you know, it's been a hundred years since we had our last pandemic, what are the odds the next one will happen on his watch That DOESN'T MATTER, the question is IF it DOES happen what will you DO ABOUT IT
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Eventually, an asteroid will hit Earth again. Have we planned around it? Nope. Is it extremely likely to be the one for us? Nope. Same with something like say another Krakatoa, let alone Yellowstone.
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All of these long term risks have nonzero chances, just because it is unlikely doesn't mean it isn't what's happening now. Human risk sources are no different, merely I lack the creativity to pull one out of my ass at a moment's notice to work it into a pithy statement.
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Respectfully, that isn't what a "black swan" is. All of these things are things you can imagine, things you can prepare for. A black swan is something you can't imagine.
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It's impossible to give an example of it, because that's the whole point, it isn't part of your current range of experiences. Otherwise, carry on.
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Near Calgary, a city of just over a million, an oil and gas company wanted to build a sour gas well. Alberta Health Services denied the application, because even though the chance of an incident happening was remote, if it did happen, 1/3 a million people would die.
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People just fundamentally do not understand that the law of very large numbers makes no exception for your ignorance of it
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