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arthur_affect's profile
Arthur Chu
Arthur Chu
Arthur Chu
Verified account
@arthur_affect

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Arthur ChuVerified account

@arthur_affect

Mad genius, comedian, actor, and freelance voiceover artist broadcasting from the distant shores of Lake Erie (he/him)

Broadview Heights, Ohio
arthur-chu.com
Joined August 2009

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    Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 9 Nov 2020

    Arthur Chu Retweeted Alexandra Erin

    People are SO BAD at planning for the low-probability, high-impact events, the so-called "black swans" In fact in the long run it's the most predictable thing that takes down organizations and civilizations, because if you want long enough something weird WILL happen eventuallyhttps://twitter.com/AlexandraErin/status/1326033128373301248 …

    Arthur Chu added,

    Alexandra Erin @AlexandraErin
    The thing about evaluating danger is that there are at least two axes to consider: the axis of probability and the axis of magnitude. A thing that has little impact and little probability? Not worth worrying about much.
    Show this thread
    9:31 PM - 9 Nov 2020
    • 47 Retweets
    • 187 Likes
    • Jack The Longest Rose asexual potato Jeannette Ng 吳志麗 Felicia DesJardins a beardless icicle momo Nilla Napier Xavier G. Richardson
    5 replies 47 retweets 187 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 9 Nov 2020

        The whole story of the Trump administration has been black swan shit Everyone's so focused on "He probably won't win, don't panic, be realistic about the chances" and not "Okay but IF he DOES win, what are you going to DO ABOUT IT"

        1 reply 9 retweets 94 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Arthur Chu‏Verified account @arthur_affect 9 Nov 2020

        Trump throwing out the pandemic response handbook because, you know, it's been a hundred years since we had our last pandemic, what are the odds the next one will happen on his watch That DOESN'T MATTER, the question is IF it DOES happen what will you DO ABOUT IT

        0 replies 4 retweets 90 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jacob Mathis‏ @GhoulofUpstate 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        Eventually, an asteroid will hit Earth again. Have we planned around it? Nope. Is it extremely likely to be the one for us? Nope. Same with something like say another Krakatoa, let alone Yellowstone.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Jacob Mathis‏ @GhoulofUpstate 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @GhoulofUpstate @arthur_affect

        All of these long term risks have nonzero chances, just because it is unlikely doesn't mean it isn't what's happening now. Human risk sources are no different, merely I lack the creativity to pull one out of my ass at a moment's notice to work it into a pithy statement.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. loafingcactus‏ @loafingcactus 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        Respectfully, that isn't what a "black swan" is. All of these things are things you can imagine, things you can prepare for. A black swan is something you can't imagine.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. loafingcactus‏ @loafingcactus 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @loafingcactus @arthur_affect

        It's impossible to give an example of it, because that's the whole point, it isn't part of your current range of experiences. Otherwise, carry on.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Show replies
      1. Kirstin Morrell‏ @KirstinMorrell 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        Near Calgary, a city of just over a million, an oil and gas company wanted to build a sour gas well. Alberta Health Services denied the application, because even though the chance of an incident happening was remote, if it did happen, 1/3 a million people would die.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. (pronounced peet-za)‏ @popeguilty 9 Nov 2020
        Replying to @arthur_affect

        People just fundamentally do not understand that the law of very large numbers makes no exception for your ignorance of it

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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