The cognitive error is not admitting critical cases exist but are minor percentages aas Ive done. The error is your assumption that these are something akin to universal. They are not.
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Replying to @Reroot_Flyover @arthur_affect and
The percentages of serious cases of COVID19 are not minor. If you're not great at stats you might think 1 in 5 people who contract it needing hospital care isn't significant but that's huge.
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Replying to @AllegraIntegra @arthur_affect and
If only that were correct. We are adding 100+ hospitalizations a day in Ohio on 4500-5000 "known" cases. Thats 2% at best.The real cases is 5-10x. I'll let you do the real math. And Ohio is not unique. Its normal. This is a bad disease. We don't need to overinflate the impact.
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Replying to @Reroot_Flyover @arthur_affect and
You cannot infer IFR until after the pandemic is over. 1 in 5 is correct and supported by every public health org. CFR is the data we use for responses and determining severity when you're in the midst.
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Replying to @AllegraIntegra @arthur_affect and
IFR/CFR irrelevant here. Use what you want. I just gave you real time data of cases and hospitalizations here and they do not support your point. The only time 20% of cases were converting to hospitalizations anywhere was maybe first week of March when we had no tests.
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Replying to @Reroot_Flyover @arthur_affect and
You gave me literally nothing of the sort, and no sources
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Replying to @AllegraIntegra @arthur_affect and
Here: Happy? This was Ohio just 2 days ago. And a record high hospitalizations number to boot so no cherry-picking. 4.6% of confirmed cases. Undoutedly lower. Not 20%. Ohio is not unique here.pic.twitter.com/40Nd3Aj3qh
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Replying to @Reroot_Flyover @AllegraIntegra and
Hospitalization rates lag case rates -- because COVID-19, like every other real-world disease, is progressive, and COVID-19 is specifically dangerous because its progression is far more gradual than most infectious diseases and therefore has a much higher r0
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Replying to @arthur_affect @Reroot_Flyover and
And since the curve is *exponential*, that means that comparing the hospitalization rate right now to the case rate right now is *extra* misleading
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Replying to @arthur_affect @Reroot_Flyover and
The "lag" when talking about anything related to COVID-19 is a perfect opportunity to lie with statistics and is the whole reason average people are cognitively underequipped to handle this crisis and keep on fucking it up because their sense of urgency is miscalibrated
3 replies 1 retweet 15 likes
Of course the number of people going to the hospital *right now* is much lower than the number of people finding out they're infected *right now* Because the people going to the hospital right now are a subset of the people who found out they were infected *several days ago*
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