If you think for a moment you will guess that "how fast is it getting smarter" probably depends on a bunch of shit, but also on "how smart is it right now" There's a relationship, in other words, between the function and its derivative. 4/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
DiffEq is the study of how to take a such relationships and find solutions (either an actual formula, or a way to calculate efficiently) what the actual functions are. So a solution here is a way to calculate how smart our AI will be at arbitrary points in the future. 5/
1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
Fun fact: In the real world almost all solutions to this class of problem are periodic. Solutions typically start out with exponential growth, and then settle into a back-and-forth swinging. Or they drop to zero and stay there. 6/
1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes -
Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
There are other possibilities, but none of them are "my AI gets infinitely smart" fin/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
The naive extrapolation of rates of change is so easy to dunk on It's like the xkcd joke about "Why I shouldn't be allowed to officiate weddings"
1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes -
Replying to @arthur_affect @amolitor99 and
"One minute ago you had zero husbands. Now you have one husband. So one minute from now you'll have two husbands Next year you'll have 525,600 husbands"
2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes -
Replying to @arthur_affect @amolitor99 and
Years ago, I saw an article saying that ten people had been eaten by alligators in Florida that year, compared to just one the year before. I noted that, at that rate of increase, it’d be less than a decade before everyone in the world had been eaten by alligators in Florida.
1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes -
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"It is impossible to explain something to a man whose salary depends on not understanding it"
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Replying to @arthur_affect @merrickdeville and
Starry-eyed tech optimism is their culture, it's their religion, it's their hustle It's the whole basis of their argument that they're going to change the world and fix everything and people should give them all their money
2 replies 5 retweets 12 likes
"Luddite" in Silicon Valley is like "atheist" in the Church It doesn't just describe someone who disagrees with you, it means a *bad person*, someone who's the problem, someone who's dragging the human race down and keeping us from having nice things
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Replying to @arthur_affect @davidgerard and
It's possible that smart people are even better at motivated reasoning
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Replying to @David_Jorgonson @arthur_affect and
no i read the Sequences that means I've allowed for my cognitive biases and my Bayesian priors are tuned to perfection
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes - Show replies
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