The singularity tech boys are either a) SF writers (Vinge and less sucessful writers) who are aware that it's a fantasy or b) people who dropped out of college and went to California to seek their fortunes before they finished that differential equations course. 3/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @arthur_affect and
I will warrant that not a few of them were finished off by the DiffEq course and dropped out because they could not make it through, being not quite smart enough. DiffEq is moderately rough rite of passage. It's not Organic Chemistry, but it's No Fun the first time. fin/
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Big topic, but let's say that you have a "function" that measures how smart your AI is any given time. You can think of it as a graph, or a table of measurements of smartness, or whatever. The point is you can ask it "how smart was my AI on Tuesday at 2:01pm" 1/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
Without knowing how to calculate in advance what that function is, that is without being able to write down a formula for it like, we can still think about it. There's also a similar function that measures how fast your AI is GETTING smarter. 2/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
So on Tuesday at 2:01 it was 100 smart, and getting smarter at 2 smartnesses per hour. The latter function is called "the derivative" of the first one. It's the rate at which the first one is changing. 3/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
If you think for a moment you will guess that "how fast is it getting smarter" probably depends on a bunch of shit, but also on "how smart is it right now" There's a relationship, in other words, between the function and its derivative. 4/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
DiffEq is the study of how to take a such relationships and find solutions (either an actual formula, or a way to calculate efficiently) what the actual functions are. So a solution here is a way to calculate how smart our AI will be at arbitrary points in the future. 5/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
Fun fact: In the real world almost all solutions to this class of problem are periodic. Solutions typically start out with exponential growth, and then settle into a back-and-forth swinging. Or they drop to zero and stay there. 6/
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Replying to @amolitor99 @merrickdeville and
There are other possibilities, but none of them are "my AI gets infinitely smart" fin/
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The naive extrapolation of rates of change is so easy to dunk on It's like the xkcd joke about "Why I shouldn't be allowed to officiate weddings"
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Replying to @arthur_affect @amolitor99 and
"One minute ago you had zero husbands. Now you have one husband. So one minute from now you'll have two husbands Next year you'll have 525,600 husbands"
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Replying to @arthur_affect @merrickdeville and
My fave is "a father pulls his daughter back on a swing, and lets her go. 7 minutes later she passes through the center of the earth at 0.47c, obviously, and that's why my B2B Blockchain Mattress Brokering startup cannot fail"
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