I'm this way with time travel. Like Janeway.
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Infinity isn't real and there's no need to let it hurt your head if you don't want to Constructivism 4 life
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Replying to @arthur_affect @iBreezy6 and
I mean have you seen the thing about how the sum of the infinite series of all natural numbers (1+2+3+4+5+6+...) is -1/12 (This makes people very angry)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-I6XTVZXww …
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I'm not going to watch that because I'm still upset about the Monty Hall problem.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH nearly everyone is upset about the Monty Hall problem. Except (to loop back to the original topic of the thread) for the fucking Rationalist cultists, because it's a classic illustration of Bayesianism, which is their Holy Scripture.
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The Monty Hall problem suffers badly from the fact that people bring their real-world intuitions to what is a highly unnatural situation You have to accept that the host *always* eliminates one of the fake doors, *whether or not* it's to his benefit to do so
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That's a good point and I always forget that part. Whenever I walk away from it for a decade and for whatever reason I'm trying to do the math in my head, I always get stuck on "but wait, what happened to the third door? And then I go look it up.
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The explanation that made it really click for me was just increasing the number of doors to some absurd level while keeping the rules the same Imagine there's 100 doors, only one of them has a car You get to pick one randomly out of the 100
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Replying to @arthur_affect @iBreezy6 and
Then, regardless of what you picked, 98 out of the 99 doors are always automatically revealed as fake Should you switch
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It should hopefully be obvious that the ONLY WAY you shouldn't switch is if you randomly happened to get the 1% chance of picking the right door initially There's a 99% chance you picked wrong, and that therefore when they eliminated the 98 the 99th unpicked door had the car
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I really appreciate that, and now it makes the Monty Hall problem seem less like an intellectual… thing, and more like a stupid parlor trick.
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I mean, it really does illustrate an important principle! But it's also very silly, on some level. Sometimes math is like that.
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